Eredivisie· Regular Season - 32· · AFAS Stadion· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.62 | 0.66–2.58 | 0.40–2.84 | 1.36 | 0.50–2.22 | 0.25–2.47 | 2.980.65–5.31 |
| Shots on target | 6.47 | 4.62–8.33 | 4.12–8.83 | 4.29 | 2.58–6.00 | 2.11–6.47 | 10.766.23–15.29 |
| Total shots | 17.67 | 13.97–21.37 | 12.94–22.40 | 12.21 | 8.83–15.59 | 7.90–16.52 | 29.8820.84–38.93 |
| Shots in box | 10.85 | 8.33–13.36 | 7.47–14.23 | 7.75 | 5.45–10.05 | 4.65–10.84 | 18.5912.12–25.07 |
| Blocked shots | 4.25 | 2.67–5.84 | 2.14–6.37 | 3.12 | 1.70–4.53 | 1.22–5.02 | 7.373.35–11.39 |
| Corners | 6.09 | 3.89–8.30 | 3.29–8.89 | 3.99 | 2.01–5.96 | 1.47–6.50 | 10.084.76–15.40 |
| Possession % | 56.05 | 49.73–62.37 | 48.13–63.96 | 43.02 | 36.70–49.34 | 35.10–50.93 | — |
| Passes | 519 | 454–584 | 436–602 | 427 | 362–492 | 345–509 | 946781–1111 |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.87 | 77.65–86.09 | 76.35–87.39 | 78.58 | 74.07–83.09 | 72.74–84.42 | — |
| Fouls | 9.03 | 6.17–11.89 | 5.29–12.77 | 11.52 | 8.57–14.46 | 7.66–15.38 | 20.5512.95–28.16 |
| Offsides | 2.06 | 0.85–3.27 | 0.51–3.62 | 1.52 | 0.36–2.68 | 0.03–3.02 | 3.580.53–6.63 |
| Yellow cards | 1.69 | 0.63–2.74 | 0.36–3.02 | 1.94 | 0.82–3.06 | 0.53–3.35 | 3.630.89–6.37 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.100.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 2.87 | 1.45–4.28 | 1.07–4.67 | 3.34 | 1.79–4.90 | 1.36–5.33 | 6.212.42–10.00 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
44%
24%
32%
Shots on target
70%
20%
Total shots
82%
14%
Shots in box
73%
20%
Blocked shots
59%
14%
27%
Corners
69%
20%
Fouls
25%
67%
Offsides
50%
21%
29%
Yellow cards
34%
22%
44%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
35%
16%
49%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+