Eredivisie· Regular Season - 33· · Fortuna Sittard Stadion· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.90 | 0.94–2.87 | 0.68–3.13 | 1.21 | 0.35–2.07 | 0.10–2.32 | 3.110.79–5.44 |
| Shots on target | 4.98 | 3.12–6.84 | 2.63–7.34 | 4.77 | 3.06–6.48 | 2.59–6.94 | 9.755.22–14.28 |
| Total shots | 15.09 | 11.39–18.79 | 10.35–19.82 | 13.37 | 9.99–16.75 | 9.06–17.68 | 28.4619.41–37.50 |
| Shots in box | 10.77 | 8.26–13.29 | 7.39–14.15 | 8.00 | 5.70–10.30 | 4.90–11.10 | 18.7712.29–25.25 |
| Blocked shots | 4.29 | 2.71–5.87 | 2.17–6.41 | 2.99 | 1.57–4.40 | 1.09–4.89 | 7.283.26–11.29 |
| Corners | 5.57 | 3.36–7.77 | 2.77–8.37 | 4.98 | 3.01–6.96 | 2.47–7.50 | 10.555.23–15.87 |
| Possession % | 49.68 | 43.36–56.00 | 41.77–57.60 | 50.07 | 43.75–56.39 | 42.15–57.98 | — |
| Passes | 397 | 332–463 | 314–480 | 411 | 346–476 | 329–493 | 808643–973 |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.66 | 66.45–74.88 | 65.14–76.18 | 68.88 | 64.37–73.38 | 63.04–74.71 | — |
| Fouls | 11.26 | 8.41–14.12 | 7.52–15.01 | 11.51 | 8.57–14.46 | 7.65–15.38 | 22.7815.17–30.38 |
| Offsides | 1.55 | 0.34–2.76 | 0.00–3.11 | 1.73 | 0.57–2.90 | 0.24–3.23 | 3.290.24–6.34 |
| Yellow cards | 1.27 | 0.21–2.32 | 0.00–2.59 | 1.46 | 0.34–2.58 | 0.05–2.87 | 2.730.00–5.47 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.120.00–0.77 |
| GK saves | 3.02 | 1.61–4.44 | 1.22–4.83 | 3.49 | 1.93–5.04 | 1.50–5.47 | 6.512.72–10.30 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
54%
22%
24%
Shots on target
46%
41%
Total shots
59%
34%
Shots in box
70%
22%
Blocked shots
62%
14%
25%
Corners
51%
37%
Fouls
44%
48%
Offsides
35%
23%
42%
Yellow cards
33%
26%
42%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
35%
16%
49%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+