Eredivisie· Regular Season - 34· · Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.84 | 0.88–2.81 | 0.62–3.07 | 1.33 | 0.47–2.19 | 0.23–2.44 | 3.180.85–5.51 |
| Shots on target | 6.04 | 4.18–7.90 | 3.69–8.40 | 4.45 | 2.74–6.16 | 2.27–6.63 | 10.495.96–15.02 |
| Total shots | 16.40 | 12.69–20.10 | 11.66–21.13 | 13.26 | 9.88–16.63 | 8.95–17.57 | 29.6520.61–38.70 |
| Shots in box | 11.44 | 8.92–13.96 | 8.06–14.82 | 6.94 | 4.64–9.24 | 3.84–10.04 | 18.3811.90–24.86 |
| Blocked shots | 4.30 | 2.72–5.88 | 2.18–6.42 | 3.16 | 1.74–4.57 | 1.26–5.06 | 7.463.44–11.48 |
| Corners | 6.09 | 3.88–8.29 | 3.29–8.89 | 4.66 | 2.68–6.64 | 2.14–7.17 | 10.755.43–16.06 |
| Possession % | 59.16 | 52.84–65.47 | 51.24–67.07 | 40.31 | 34.00–46.63 | 32.40–48.23 | — |
| Passes | 516 | 450–581 | 433–599 | 353 | 288–418 | 271–435 | 869704–1034 |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.93 | 72.71–81.14 | 71.41–82.45 | 67.18 | 62.67–71.69 | 61.34–73.02 | — |
| Fouls | 11.48 | 8.63–14.34 | 7.74–15.23 | 11.16 | 8.22–14.11 | 7.30–15.03 | 22.6515.04–30.25 |
| Offsides | 1.61 | 0.40–2.82 | 0.06–3.16 | 1.48 | 0.32–2.64 | 0.00–2.98 | 3.090.04–6.14 |
| Yellow cards | 1.40 | 0.34–2.45 | 0.07–2.72 | 1.61 | 0.49–2.73 | 0.20–3.02 | 3.010.27–5.75 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.120.00–0.76 |
| GK saves | 2.94 | 1.53–4.36 | 1.14–4.75 | 3.33 | 1.77–4.88 | 1.34–5.31 | 6.272.48–10.06 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
50%
23%
28%
Shots on target
63%
26%
Total shots
69%
25%
Shots in box
83%
Blocked shots
59%
14%
27%
Corners
61%
28%
Fouls
48%
43%
Offsides
41%
24%
35%
Yellow cards
33%
24%
43%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
36%
16%
48%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+