Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.35 | 0.39–2.31 | 0.13–2.57 | 1.51 | 0.65–2.37 | 0.40–2.61 | 2.860.53–5.19 |
| Shots on target | 4.44 | 2.58–6.29 | 2.08–6.79 | 4.04 | 2.33–5.75 | 1.86–6.21 | 8.473.94–13.00 |
| Total shots | 11.22 | 7.52–14.92 | 6.49–15.95 | 12.05 | 8.67–15.43 | 7.74–16.36 | 23.2714.22–32.31 |
| Shots in box | 9.67 | 7.15–12.19 | 6.29–13.05 | 8.58 | 6.28–10.88 | 5.49–11.68 | 18.2511.78–24.73 |
| Blocked shots | 3.78 | 2.20–5.36 | 1.66–5.90 | 3.57 | 2.16–4.99 | 1.67–5.48 | 7.363.34–11.37 |
| Corners | 5.88 | 3.68–8.09 | 3.08–8.68 | 4.56 | 2.58–6.54 | 2.05–7.08 | 10.445.13–15.76 |
| Possession % | 50.43 | 44.11–56.75 | 42.51–58.34 | 49.12 | 42.80–55.44 | 41.21–57.04 | — |
| Passes | 439 | 373–504 | 356–522 | 430 | 366–495 | 348–512 | 869704–1034 |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.25 | 65.04–73.47 | 63.74–74.77 | 69.05 | 64.54–73.55 | 63.21–74.88 | — |
| Fouls | 10.87 | 8.01–13.73 | 7.13–14.61 | 11.32 | 8.37–14.26 | 7.45–15.18 | 22.1914.58–29.79 |
| Offsides | 1.87 | 0.66–3.08 | 0.32–3.43 | 1.24 | 0.07–2.40 | 0.00–2.73 | 3.110.06–6.16 |
| Yellow cards | 1.28 | 0.23–2.34 | 0.00–2.61 | 1.59 | 0.47–2.71 | 0.18–3.00 | 2.880.14–5.61 |
| Red cards | 0.02 | 0.00–0.17 | 0.00–0.32 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.100.00–0.74 |
| GK saves | 2.40 | 0.98–3.81 | 0.60–4.20 | 3.04 | 1.49–4.59 | 1.05–5.02 | 5.441.65–9.23 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
34%
25%
41%
Shots on target
48%
14%
38%
Total shots
39%
53%
Shots in box
55%
35%
Blocked shots
46%
15%
40%
Corners
60%
29%
Fouls
42%
50%
Offsides
52%
23%
25%
Yellow cards
31%
25%
45%
Red cards
91%
GK saves
31%
17%
52%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+