Ligue 1· Regular Season - 4· · Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps· referee: Francois Letexier
Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoff| Stat | Home | safe | safer | actual | Away | safe | safer | actual | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.18 | 0.22–2.14 | 0.00–2.40 | 1.00 | 1.41 | 0.55–2.27 | 0.31–2.52 | 0.00 | 2.59act. 1.00 |
| Shots on target | 3.79 | 1.93–5.64 | 1.43–6.14 | 7.00 | 4.16 | 2.46–5.87 | 1.99–6.34 | 4.00 | 7.95act. 11.00 |
| Total shots | 12.15 | 8.44–15.85 | 7.41–16.88 | 11.00 | 11.49 | 8.11–14.87 | 7.18–15.80 | 12.00 | 23.64act. 23.00 |
| Shots in box | 7.35 | 4.83–9.86 | 3.96–10.73 | 11.00 | 7.27 | 4.96–9.57 | 4.17–10.36 | 7.00 | 14.61act. 18.00 |
| Blocked shots | 3.12 | 1.53–4.70 | 1.00–5.24 | 1.00 | 2.52 | 1.10–3.93 | 0.61–4.42 | 3.00 | 5.63act. 4.00 |
| Corners | 5.33 | 3.13–7.54 | 2.53–8.13 | 3.00 | 4.69 | 2.71–6.66 | 2.17–7.20 | 8.00 | 10.02act. 11.00 |
| Possession % | 46.08 | 39.76–52.39 | 38.16–53.99 | 32.00 | 52.73 | 46.41–59.05 | 44.81–60.65 | 68.00 | — |
| Passes | 431 | 365–496 | 348–514 | 302 | 478 | 414–543 | 396–560 | 695 | 909act. 997 |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.42 | 77.21–85.64 | 75.91–86.94 | — | 83.40 | 78.89–87.90 | 77.56–89.23 | — | — |
| Fouls | 10.29 | 7.43–13.15 | 6.55–14.03 | 9.00 | 10.99 | 8.05–13.94 | 7.13–14.85 | 7.00 | 21.28act. 16.00 |
| Offsides | 1.65 | 0.44–2.86 | 0.10–3.21 | 0.00 | 1.71 | 0.55–2.88 | 0.22–3.21 | 3.00 | 3.37act. 3.00 |
| Yellow cards | 1.80 | 0.74–2.85 | 0.47–3.13 | 1.00 | 1.97 | 0.85–3.09 | 0.56–3.38 | 1.00 | 3.77act. 2.00 |
| Red cards | 0.07 | 0.00–0.22 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.00–0.30 | 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.17act. 0.00 |
| GK saves | 2.65 | 1.24–4.06 | 0.85–4.45 | 4.00 | 2.55 | 0.99–4.10 | 0.56–4.53 | 4.00 | 5.20act. 8.00 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
31%
26%
42%
Shots on target
38%
14%
48%
Total shots
51%
41%
Shots in box
46%
44%
Blocked shots
51%
17%
32%
Corners
52%
36%
Fouls
40%
52%
Offsides
37%
23%
40%
Yellow cards
36%
21%
43%
Red cards
85%
GK saves
43%
18%
39%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+