Ligue 1· Regular Season - 5· · Allianz Riviera· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.35 | 0.39–2.32 | 0.13–2.58 | 1.46 | 0.60–2.32 | 0.35–2.56 | 2.810.48–5.14 |
| Shots on target | 4.84 | 2.99–6.70 | 2.49–7.20 | 4.33 | 2.62–6.04 | 2.16–6.51 | 9.174.64–13.70 |
| Total shots | 13.92 | 10.21–17.62 | 9.18–18.65 | 11.63 | 8.25–15.01 | 7.32–15.94 | 25.5416.50–34.59 |
| Shots in box | 8.81 | 6.29–11.32 | 5.43–12.19 | 8.16 | 5.86–10.46 | 5.06–11.26 | 16.9610.49–23.44 |
| Blocked shots | 3.91 | 2.32–5.49 | 1.79–6.03 | 3.13 | 1.71–4.54 | 1.22–5.03 | 7.033.01–11.05 |
| Corners | 4.84 | 2.63–7.04 | 2.04–7.64 | 4.38 | 2.40–6.36 | 1.87–6.90 | 9.223.90–14.53 |
| Possession % | 51.28 | 44.96–57.60 | 43.37–59.19 | 48.69 | 42.38–55.01 | 40.78–56.61 | — |
| Passes | 521 | 456–587 | 438–604 | 483 | 419–548 | 401–566 | 1005839–1170 |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.71 | 69.50–77.93 | 68.20–79.23 | 73.90 | 69.39–78.40 | 68.06–79.73 | — |
| Fouls | 11.53 | 8.68–14.39 | 7.79–15.28 | 9.84 | 6.89–12.78 | 5.97–13.70 | 21.3713.77–28.98 |
| Offsides | 1.90 | 0.69–3.11 | 0.35–3.45 | 1.87 | 0.70–3.03 | 0.37–3.36 | 3.770.72–6.82 |
| Yellow cards | 1.78 | 0.73–2.84 | 0.46–3.11 | 1.62 | 0.50–2.74 | 0.21–3.03 | 3.400.67–6.14 |
| Red cards | 0.10 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.160.00–0.80 |
| GK saves | 3.18 | 1.77–4.60 | 1.38–4.99 | 2.60 | 1.05–4.16 | 0.62–4.59 | 5.792.00–9.58 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
35%
25%
40%
Shots on target
50%
13%
37%
Total shots
64%
29%
Shots in box
51%
39%
Blocked shots
54%
15%
31%
Corners
49%
13%
38%
Fouls
60%
32%
Offsides
40%
21%
39%
Yellow cards
42%
23%
35%
Red cards
86%
GK saves
51%
17%
32%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+