Ligue 1· Regular Season - 5· · Stade Jean Bouin· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.72 | 0.76–2.68 | 0.50–2.94 | 1.09 | 0.23–1.94 | 0.00–2.19 | 2.810.48–5.14 |
| Shots on target | 5.81 | 3.95–7.66 | 3.45–8.16 | 4.05 | 2.34–5.76 | 1.88–6.23 | 9.865.33–14.39 |
| Total shots | 15.33 | 11.62–19.03 | 10.59–20.06 | 11.28 | 7.90–14.66 | 6.97–15.59 | 26.6017.56–35.65 |
| Shots in box | 10.57 | 8.06–13.09 | 7.19–13.95 | 7.77 | 5.46–10.07 | 4.67–10.86 | 18.3411.86–24.82 |
| Blocked shots | 4.16 | 2.58–5.75 | 2.04–6.28 | 3.12 | 1.70–4.53 | 1.22–5.02 | 7.283.26–11.30 |
| Corners | 5.92 | 3.71–8.12 | 3.12–8.72 | 4.48 | 2.50–6.46 | 1.97–7.00 | 10.405.08–15.71 |
| Possession % | 53.74 | 47.42–60.06 | 45.82–61.65 | 45.45 | 39.13–51.77 | 37.53–53.37 | — |
| Passes | 522 | 457–587 | 439–605 | 438 | 374–503 | 356–520 | 960795–1125 |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.52 | 64.31–72.74 | 63.01–74.04 | 69.26 | 64.75–73.77 | 63.42–75.10 | — |
| Fouls | 10.04 | 7.19–12.90 | 6.30–13.79 | 9.49 | 6.54–12.43 | 5.62–13.35 | 19.5311.92–27.13 |
| Offsides | 2.23 | 1.02–3.44 | 0.68–3.78 | 1.67 | 0.51–2.83 | 0.18–3.17 | 3.900.85–6.95 |
| Yellow cards | 1.72 | 0.66–2.78 | 0.39–3.05 | 2.01 | 0.89–3.13 | 0.60–3.42 | 3.730.99–6.47 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.04 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.090.00–0.73 |
| GK saves | 2.64 | 1.23–4.06 | 0.84–4.45 | 3.27 | 1.71–4.82 | 1.28–5.25 | 5.912.12–9.70 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
52%
24%
24%
Shots on target
65%
23%
Total shots
75%
19%
Shots in box
71%
22%
Blocked shots
58%
14%
28%
Corners
61%
27%
Fouls
50%
40%
Offsides
51%
20%
29%
Yellow cards
34%
21%
45%
Red cards
91%
GK saves
32%
16%
52%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+