Ligue 1· Regular Season - 7· · Stade Océane· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.49 | 0.52–2.45 | 0.26–2.71 | 1.07 | 0.21–1.93 | 0.00–2.18 | 2.560.23–4.89 |
| Shots on target | 5.13 | 3.27–6.99 | 2.78–7.49 | 3.90 | 2.19–5.60 | 1.72–6.07 | 9.034.50–13.56 |
| Total shots | 14.53 | 10.82–18.23 | 9.79–19.26 | 11.15 | 7.77–14.53 | 6.84–15.46 | 25.6716.63–34.72 |
| Shots in box | 8.95 | 6.43–11.47 | 5.57–12.33 | 6.83 | 4.53–9.13 | 3.73–9.93 | 15.789.30–22.26 |
| Blocked shots | 3.63 | 2.05–5.22 | 1.51–5.75 | 2.98 | 1.57–4.39 | 1.08–4.88 | 6.612.59–10.63 |
| Corners | 5.85 | 3.65–8.06 | 3.05–8.65 | 4.56 | 2.59–6.54 | 2.05–7.08 | 10.425.10–15.73 |
| Possession % | 53.67 | 47.36–59.99 | 45.76–61.59 | 46.36 | 40.04–52.68 | 38.44–54.27 | — |
| Passes | 436 | 370–501 | 353–518 | 365 | 300–429 | 283–447 | 800635–965 |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.09 | 61.87–70.30 | 60.57–71.60 | 64.23 | 59.72–68.74 | 58.39–70.07 | — |
| Fouls | 11.04 | 8.18–13.90 | 7.30–14.78 | 12.84 | 9.89–15.79 | 8.98–16.70 | 23.8816.28–31.49 |
| Offsides | 1.82 | 0.61–3.02 | 0.26–3.37 | 1.63 | 0.46–2.79 | 0.13–3.12 | 3.440.39–6.49 |
| Yellow cards | 1.51 | 0.46–2.57 | 0.18–2.84 | 2.05 | 0.93–3.17 | 0.64–3.46 | 3.570.83–6.30 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.110.00–0.76 |
| GK saves | 2.58 | 1.17–3.99 | 0.78–4.38 | 2.80 | 1.24–4.35 | 0.81–4.78 | 5.381.59–9.17 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
47%
26%
27%
Shots on target
60%
28%
Total shots
72%
22%
Shots in box
66%
25%
Blocked shots
52%
15%
32%
Corners
60%
29%
Fouls
32%
60%
Offsides
43%
22%
35%
Yellow cards
28%
21%
50%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
38%
18%
45%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+