Ligue 1· Regular Season - 7· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.94 | 0.98–2.90 | 0.72–3.16 | 0.94 | 0.08–1.80 | 0.00–2.05 | 2.880.55–5.21 |
| Shots on target | 5.45 | 3.59–7.30 | 3.09–7.80 | 3.31 | 1.61–5.02 | 1.14–5.49 | 8.764.23–13.29 |
| Total shots | 14.73 | 11.03–18.44 | 10.00–19.47 | 9.20 | 5.82–12.57 | 4.89–13.50 | 23.9314.89–32.97 |
| Shots in box | 10.78 | 8.26–13.30 | 7.40–14.16 | 5.49 | 3.19–7.79 | 2.40–8.59 | 16.279.79–22.75 |
| Blocked shots | 3.95 | 2.37–5.54 | 1.83–6.07 | 2.07 | 0.66–3.49 | 0.17–3.97 | 6.022.00–10.04 |
| Corners | 5.99 | 3.79–8.20 | 3.19–8.79 | 3.22 | 1.24–5.20 | 0.70–5.73 | 9.213.89–14.53 |
| Possession % | 57.98 | 51.66–64.29 | 50.06–65.89 | 43.20 | 36.88–49.51 | 35.28–51.11 | — |
| Passes | 555 | 490–621 | 472–638 | 451 | 386–515 | 368–533 | 1006841–1171 |
| Pass accuracy % | 83.71 | 79.50–87.93 | 78.20–89.23 | 73.64 | 69.13–78.14 | 67.80–79.47 | — |
| Fouls | 9.50 | 6.64–12.36 | 5.76–13.24 | 12.81 | 9.87–15.76 | 8.95–16.67 | 22.3114.71–29.92 |
| Offsides | 1.67 | 0.46–2.88 | 0.11–3.22 | 1.91 | 0.74–3.07 | 0.41–3.40 | 3.570.52–6.62 |
| Yellow cards | 1.47 | 0.42–2.53 | 0.14–2.80 | 2.05 | 0.93–3.17 | 0.64–3.46 | 3.530.79–6.26 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.100.00–0.74 |
| GK saves | 2.44 | 1.03–3.86 | 0.64–4.25 | 3.13 | 1.58–4.69 | 1.15–5.12 | 5.581.79–9.37 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
61%
22%
18%
Shots on target
71%
18%
Total shots
85%
Shots in box
89%
Blocked shots
71%
16%
Corners
77%
14%
Fouls
21%
72%
Offsides
34%
22%
44%
Yellow cards
28%
21%
51%
Red cards
91%
GK saves
30%
17%
53%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+