Ligue 1· Regular Season - 8· · Stade Francis-Le-Blé· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.30 | 0.34–2.27 | 0.08–2.53 | 1.21 | 0.35–2.07 | 0.10–2.31 | 2.510.18–4.84 |
| Shots on target | 4.14 | 2.28–6.00 | 1.78–6.49 | 4.16 | 2.46–5.87 | 1.99–6.34 | 8.303.77–12.84 |
| Total shots | 12.93 | 9.22–16.63 | 8.19–17.66 | 12.01 | 8.63–15.39 | 7.70–16.32 | 24.9415.89–33.98 |
| Shots in box | 8.42 | 5.90–10.93 | 5.04–11.80 | 6.90 | 4.60–9.20 | 3.80–10.00 | 15.328.84–21.80 |
| Blocked shots | 3.46 | 1.88–5.04 | 1.34–5.58 | 2.70 | 1.29–4.12 | 0.80–4.60 | 6.162.14–10.18 |
| Corners | 4.79 | 2.58–6.99 | 1.99–7.59 | 4.57 | 2.59–6.55 | 2.05–7.09 | 9.364.04–14.67 |
| Possession % | 45.09 | 38.77–51.41 | 37.17–53.00 | 54.28 | 47.96–60.60 | 46.36–62.20 | — |
| Passes | 442 | 377–508 | 359–525 | 538 | 474–603 | 456–620 | 980815–1146 |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.39 | 65.18–73.61 | 63.88–74.91 | 73.09 | 68.58–77.60 | 67.25–78.93 | — |
| Fouls | 10.94 | 8.08–13.80 | 7.20–14.68 | 12.11 | 9.17–15.06 | 8.25–15.97 | 23.0515.45–30.66 |
| Offsides | 1.84 | 0.63–3.05 | 0.29–3.40 | 1.51 | 0.35–2.67 | 0.02–3.01 | 3.350.31–6.40 |
| Yellow cards | 1.61 | 0.56–2.67 | 0.28–2.94 | 1.79 | 0.67–2.91 | 0.38–3.20 | 3.400.67–6.14 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.110.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 2.54 | 1.12–3.95 | 0.74–4.34 | 2.79 | 1.23–4.34 | 0.80–4.77 | 5.331.54–9.12 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
39%
27%
34%
Shots on target
43%
14%
43%
Total shots
53%
39%
Shots in box
60%
30%
Blocked shots
54%
16%
30%
Corners
46%
13%
41%
Fouls
36%
56%
Offsides
46%
23%
32%
Yellow cards
35%
23%
42%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
37%
18%
45%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+