Ligue 1· Regular Season - 9· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.63 | 0.67–2.59 | 0.41–2.85 | 1.26 | 0.40–2.12 | 0.15–2.36 | 2.890.56–5.22 |
| Shots on target | 4.81 | 2.95–6.67 | 2.45–7.16 | 5.10 | 3.39–6.81 | 2.92–7.28 | 9.915.38–14.44 |
| Total shots | 13.06 | 9.36–16.77 | 8.33–17.80 | 14.06 | 10.68–17.43 | 9.75–18.37 | 27.1218.08–36.16 |
| Shots in box | 10.07 | 7.56–12.59 | 6.69–13.45 | 8.36 | 6.06–10.66 | 5.26–11.45 | 18.4311.95–24.91 |
| Blocked shots | 3.90 | 2.32–5.49 | 1.78–6.02 | 3.70 | 2.29–5.12 | 1.80–5.60 | 7.603.58–11.62 |
| Corners | 5.17 | 2.97–7.38 | 2.37–7.97 | 5.03 | 3.05–7.00 | 2.51–7.54 | 10.204.88–15.51 |
| Possession % | 52.68 | 46.37–59.00 | 44.77–60.60 | 45.77 | 39.46–52.09 | 37.86–53.69 | — |
| Passes | 522 | 457–587 | 439–605 | 448 | 383–513 | 366–530 | 970805–1135 |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.16 | 68.94–77.37 | 67.64–78.67 | 71.96 | 67.46–76.47 | 66.13–77.80 | — |
| Fouls | 11.08 | 8.23–13.94 | 7.34–14.82 | 12.98 | 10.04–15.93 | 9.12–16.84 | 24.0616.46–31.67 |
| Offsides | 2.08 | 0.87–3.29 | 0.53–3.63 | 1.59 | 0.43–2.75 | 0.10–3.09 | 3.670.62–6.72 |
| Yellow cards | 1.54 | 0.48–2.59 | 0.21–2.86 | 2.19 | 1.07–3.31 | 0.78–3.60 | 3.720.98–6.46 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.130.00–0.77 |
| GK saves | 3.13 | 1.71–4.54 | 1.32–4.93 | 2.82 | 1.27–4.38 | 0.84–4.81 | 5.952.16–9.74 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
46%
24%
30%
Shots on target
40%
47%
Total shots
39%
54%
Shots in box
61%
30%
Blocked shots
45%
15%
40%
Corners
45%
42%
Fouls
31%
61%
Offsides
49%
21%
30%
Yellow cards
27%
21%
53%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
47%
17%
37%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+