Ligue 1· Regular Season - 9· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.18 | 1.22–3.14 | 0.96–3.40 | 0.79 | 0.00–1.65 | 0.00–1.90 | 2.970.64–5.30 |
| Shots on target | 6.59 | 4.73–8.44 | 4.23–8.94 | 2.93 | 1.22–4.64 | 0.75–5.10 | 9.514.98–14.05 |
| Total shots | 17.49 | 13.79–21.19 | 12.76–22.22 | 8.65 | 5.27–12.03 | 4.34–12.96 | 26.1417.10–35.19 |
| Shots in box | 12.93 | 10.41–15.44 | 9.55–16.31 | 6.03 | 3.73–8.33 | 2.93–9.13 | 18.9612.48–25.44 |
| Blocked shots | 4.58 | 3.00–6.17 | 2.47–6.70 | 2.39 | 0.97–3.80 | 0.49–4.29 | 6.972.95–10.99 |
| Corners | 6.82 | 4.62–9.03 | 4.02–9.62 | 3.56 | 1.58–5.54 | 1.05–6.08 | 10.385.07–15.70 |
| Possession % | 60.44 | 54.12–66.76 | 52.53–68.36 | 40.71 | 34.39–47.03 | 32.80–48.63 | — |
| Passes | 555 | 490–620 | 472–638 | 375 | 311–440 | 293–457 | 930765–1095 |
| Pass accuracy % | 82.46 | 78.25–86.68 | 76.95–87.98 | 70.34 | 65.83–74.85 | 64.50–76.18 | — |
| Fouls | 10.95 | 8.09–13.80 | 7.20–14.69 | 11.84 | 8.90–14.79 | 7.98–15.71 | 22.7915.19–30.40 |
| Offsides | 1.68 | 0.47–2.89 | 0.12–3.23 | 1.55 | 0.39–2.72 | 0.06–3.05 | 3.230.18–6.28 |
| Yellow cards | 1.35 | 0.30–2.41 | 0.02–2.68 | 2.23 | 1.10–3.35 | 0.81–3.64 | 3.580.84–6.31 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.110.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 2.14 | 0.73–3.55 | 0.34–3.94 | 3.34 | 1.78–4.89 | 1.35–5.32 | 5.481.69–9.27 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
69%
19%
Shots on target
85%
Total shots
95%
Shots in box
93%
Blocked shots
74%
15%
Corners
81%
Fouls
38%
53%
Offsides
41%
23%
36%
Yellow cards
23%
20%
57%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
23%
16%
61%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+