Ligue 1· Regular Season - 10· · MMArena· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.40 | 0.44–2.37 | 0.18–2.63 | 1.79 | 0.93–2.65 | 0.68–2.90 | 3.190.86–5.52 |
| Shots on target | 4.91 | 3.05–6.77 | 2.55–7.26 | 5.04 | 3.34–6.75 | 2.87–7.22 | 9.955.42–14.48 |
| Total shots | 12.93 | 9.23–16.64 | 8.20–17.67 | 13.78 | 10.40–17.16 | 9.47–18.09 | 26.7117.67–35.76 |
| Shots in box | 7.81 | 5.30–10.33 | 4.43–11.19 | 8.89 | 6.59–11.19 | 5.79–11.99 | 16.7010.22–23.18 |
| Blocked shots | 3.21 | 1.63–4.80 | 1.09–5.33 | 3.48 | 2.07–4.90 | 1.58–5.38 | 6.692.67–10.71 |
| Corners | 4.82 | 2.61–7.02 | 2.02–7.62 | 5.10 | 3.12–7.08 | 2.59–7.62 | 9.924.60–15.24 |
| Possession % | 46.88 | 40.56–53.19 | 38.96–54.79 | 54.80 | 48.48–61.12 | 46.89–62.72 | — |
| Passes | 480 | 415–546 | 397–563 | 520 | 455–584 | 438–602 | 1000835–1165 |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.29 | 66.07–74.50 | 64.77–75.80 | 72.70 | 68.20–77.21 | 66.87–78.54 | — |
| Fouls | 10.33 | 7.48–13.19 | 6.59–14.08 | 11.33 | 8.39–14.28 | 7.47–15.20 | 21.6714.06–29.27 |
| Offsides | 1.59 | 0.38–2.80 | 0.03–3.14 | 2.38 | 1.22–3.55 | 0.89–3.88 | 3.970.92–7.02 |
| Yellow cards | 1.60 | 0.54–2.66 | 0.27–2.93 | 1.77 | 0.65–2.89 | 0.36–3.18 | 3.370.63–6.11 |
| Red cards | 0.08 | 0.00–0.23 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.160.00–0.80 |
| GK saves | 3.28 | 1.87–4.70 | 1.48–5.09 | 3.26 | 1.71–4.82 | 1.28–5.25 | 6.552.76–10.34 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
30%
23%
47%
Shots on target
42%
45%
Total shots
40%
53%
Shots in box
35%
56%
Blocked shots
38%
16%
46%
Corners
40%
47%
Fouls
37%
54%
Offsides
25%
19%
55%
Yellow cards
35%
23%
42%
Red cards
86%
GK saves
42%
16%
42%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+