Ligue 1· Regular Season - 10· · Roazhon Park· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.68 | 0.72–2.65 | 0.46–2.91 | 1.35 | 0.49–2.20 | 0.24–2.45 | 3.030.70–5.36 |
| Shots on target | 5.87 | 4.02–7.73 | 3.52–8.23 | 4.34 | 2.63–6.04 | 2.16–6.51 | 10.215.68–14.74 |
| Total shots | 17.12 | 13.42–20.83 | 12.39–21.86 | 11.07 | 7.70–14.45 | 6.76–15.38 | 28.2019.15–37.24 |
| Shots in box | 11.89 | 9.38–14.41 | 8.51–15.27 | 7.51 | 5.21–9.81 | 4.41–10.60 | 19.4012.92–25.88 |
| Blocked shots | 5.08 | 3.49–6.66 | 2.96–7.20 | 2.87 | 1.46–4.29 | 0.97–4.77 | 7.953.93–11.97 |
| Corners | 5.73 | 3.53–7.94 | 2.93–8.53 | 4.34 | 2.36–6.32 | 1.82–6.85 | 10.074.75–15.39 |
| Possession % | 53.34 | 47.03–59.66 | 45.43–61.26 | 48.04 | 41.72–54.36 | 40.12–55.95 | — |
| Passes | 514 | 449–580 | 431–597 | 460 | 395–524 | 378–542 | 974809–1139 |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.42 | 67.20–75.63 | 65.90–76.93 | 70.03 | 65.53–74.54 | 64.20–75.87 | — |
| Fouls | 12.24 | 9.38–15.10 | 8.50–15.98 | 10.43 | 7.48–13.37 | 6.56–14.29 | 22.6715.06–30.27 |
| Offsides | 1.86 | 0.65–3.07 | 0.31–3.41 | 2.25 | 1.09–3.42 | 0.76–3.75 | 4.111.06–7.16 |
| Yellow cards | 1.97 | 0.91–3.02 | 0.64–3.29 | 2.01 | 0.89–3.13 | 0.60–3.42 | 3.981.24–6.72 |
| Red cards | 0.08 | 0.00–0.23 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.150.00–0.79 |
| GK saves | 2.62 | 1.21–4.04 | 0.82–4.43 | 3.61 | 2.05–5.16 | 1.62–5.59 | 6.232.44–10.02 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
45%
24%
31%
Shots on target
63%
26%
Total shots
85%
Shots in box
81%
13%
Blocked shots
73%
17%
Corners
61%
27%
Fouls
61%
31%
Offsides
32%
20%
47%
Yellow cards
39%
21%
41%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
27%
15%
57%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+