Ligue 1· Regular Season - 11· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.79 | 1.83–3.76 | 1.57–4.02 | 0.90 | 0.04–1.76 | 0.00–2.01 | 3.701.37–6.03 |
| Shots on target | 6.47 | 4.62–8.33 | 4.12–8.83 | 4.10 | 2.40–5.81 | 1.93–6.28 | 10.586.05–15.11 |
| Total shots | 16.86 | 13.16–20.57 | 12.13–21.60 | 10.80 | 7.42–14.18 | 6.49–15.11 | 27.6618.62–36.71 |
| Shots in box | 13.17 | 10.65–15.68 | 9.79–16.55 | 5.70 | 3.40–8.00 | 2.61–8.80 | 18.8712.39–25.35 |
| Blocked shots | 5.17 | 3.58–6.75 | 3.05–7.28 | 2.33 | 0.92–3.75 | 0.43–4.24 | 7.503.48–11.52 |
| Corners | 6.66 | 4.46–8.87 | 3.86–9.47 | 3.41 | 1.43–5.39 | 0.90–5.93 | 10.084.76–15.39 |
| Possession % | 63.37 | 57.05–69.69 | 55.46–71.29 | 37.44 | 31.12–43.76 | 29.52–45.35 | — |
| Passes | 680 | 615–745 | 597–763 | 396 | 331–460 | 313–478 | 1076911–1241 |
| Pass accuracy % | 83.56 | 79.35–87.78 | 78.05–89.08 | 70.79 | 66.28–75.30 | 64.95–76.63 | — |
| Fouls | 9.72 | 6.86–12.58 | 5.98–13.46 | 11.18 | 8.23–14.13 | 7.32–15.04 | 20.9013.29–28.50 |
| Offsides | 2.13 | 0.92–3.34 | 0.58–3.68 | 1.62 | 0.46–2.79 | 0.13–3.12 | 3.750.71–6.80 |
| Yellow cards | 1.32 | 0.27–2.38 | 0.00–2.65 | 1.83 | 0.71–2.95 | 0.42–3.24 | 3.160.42–5.89 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.120.00–0.76 |
| GK saves | 2.83 | 1.41–4.24 | 1.02–4.63 | 4.17 | 2.62–5.73 | 2.19–6.16 | 7.003.21–10.79 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
77%
14%
Shots on target
72%
19%
Total shots
86%
Shots in box
95%
Blocked shots
81%
Corners
81%
Fouls
33%
58%
Offsides
50%
21%
30%
Yellow cards
28%
23%
49%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
24%
14%
62%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+