Ligue 1· Regular Season - 12· · MMArena· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.16 | 0.20–2.13 | 0.00–2.39 | 1.74 | 0.88–2.60 | 0.63–2.84 | 2.900.57–5.23 |
| Shots on target | 4.89 | 3.03–6.75 | 2.54–7.25 | 5.38 | 3.67–7.09 | 3.21–7.56 | 10.275.74–14.80 |
| Total shots | 13.87 | 10.17–17.58 | 9.14–18.61 | 13.43 | 10.05–16.81 | 9.12–17.74 | 27.3118.26–36.35 |
| Shots in box | 8.13 | 5.61–10.64 | 4.75–11.51 | 10.23 | 7.93–12.53 | 7.13–13.33 | 18.3611.88–24.84 |
| Blocked shots | 3.60 | 2.02–5.19 | 1.49–5.72 | 3.57 | 2.16–4.99 | 1.67–5.47 | 7.183.16–11.20 |
| Corners | 4.95 | 2.74–7.15 | 2.15–7.75 | 5.51 | 3.53–7.49 | 2.99–8.03 | 10.465.14–15.77 |
| Possession % | 46.47 | 40.15–52.79 | 38.56–54.39 | 53.72 | 47.41–60.04 | 45.81–61.64 | — |
| Passes | 473 | 408–538 | 390–556 | 504 | 440–569 | 422–586 | 977812–1142 |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.44 | 65.22–73.66 | 63.92–74.96 | 73.26 | 68.76–77.77 | 67.43–79.10 | — |
| Fouls | 12.00 | 9.14–14.86 | 8.26–15.74 | 11.32 | 8.37–14.26 | 7.45–15.18 | 23.3115.71–30.92 |
| Offsides | 1.76 | 0.55–2.97 | 0.20–3.31 | 2.37 | 1.21–3.54 | 0.88–3.87 | 4.131.08–7.18 |
| Yellow cards | 1.96 | 0.90–3.01 | 0.63–3.29 | 1.59 | 0.47–2.71 | 0.18–3.00 | 3.550.81–6.29 |
| Red cards | 0.09 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.150.00–0.80 |
| GK saves | 3.60 | 2.19–5.02 | 1.80–5.40 | 2.84 | 1.29–4.40 | 0.86–4.83 | 6.442.65–10.23 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
25%
24%
51%
Shots on target
38%
50%
Total shots
50%
43%
Shots in box
27%
65%
Blocked shots
43%
15%
42%
Corners
37%
51%
Fouls
51%
40%
Offsides
29%
20%
52%
Yellow cards
47%
22%
32%
Red cards
86%
GK saves
54%
15%
31%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+