Ligue 1· Regular Season - 13· · Stadium Municipal· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.84 | 0.00–1.80 | 0.00–2.06 | 2.81 | 1.95–3.67 | 1.70–3.91 | 3.641.31–5.97 |
| Shots on target | 2.98 | 1.13–4.84 | 0.63–5.34 | 7.74 | 6.03–9.44 | 5.56–9.91 | 10.726.19–15.25 |
| Total shots | 8.64 | 4.94–12.34 | 3.91–13.38 | 19.05 | 15.67–22.43 | 14.74–23.36 | 27.6918.65–36.74 |
| Shots in box | 6.36 | 3.84–8.87 | 2.98–9.74 | 13.43 | 11.13–15.74 | 10.34–16.53 | 19.7913.31–26.27 |
| Blocked shots | 2.46 | 0.87–4.04 | 0.34–4.57 | 5.02 | 3.61–6.44 | 3.12–6.92 | 7.483.46–11.50 |
| Corners | 2.93 | 0.73–5.14 | 0.13–5.73 | 6.70 | 4.72–8.67 | 4.18–9.21 | 9.634.31–14.94 |
| Possession % | 29.71 | 23.39–36.02 | 21.79–37.62 | 70.28 | 63.96–76.59 | 62.36–78.19 | — |
| Passes | 367 | 302–433 | 284–450 | 743 | 679–808 | 661–826 | 1111946–1276 |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.45 | 64.23–72.66 | 62.93–73.96 | 85.79 | 81.29–90.30 | 79.96–91.63 | — |
| Fouls | 11.44 | 8.58–14.29 | 7.69–15.18 | 8.44 | 5.50–11.39 | 4.58–12.30 | 19.8812.27–27.48 |
| Offsides | 2.44 | 1.24–3.65 | 0.89–4.00 | 2.34 | 1.17–3.50 | 0.84–3.83 | 4.781.73–7.83 |
| Yellow cards | 1.81 | 0.76–2.87 | 0.49–3.14 | 1.11 | 0.00–2.23 | 0.00–2.52 | 2.920.18–5.66 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.05 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.100.00–0.74 |
| GK saves | 5.39 | 3.98–6.80 | 3.59–7.19 | 1.81 | 0.26–3.37 | 0.00–3.80 | 7.203.41–10.99 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
13%
78%
Shots on target
91%
Total shots
97%
Shots in box
93%
Blocked shots
78%
Corners
86%
Fouls
71%
22%
Offsides
43%
19%
39%
Yellow cards
54%
23%
23%
Red cards
91%
GK saves
88%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+