Ligue 1· Regular Season - 13· · Stade de l'Aube· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.90 | 0.00–1.86 | 0.00–2.12 | 2.06 | 1.20–2.92 | 0.95–3.17 | 2.960.63–5.29 |
| Shots on target | 3.40 | 1.54–5.26 | 1.05–5.76 | 5.48 | 3.77–7.18 | 3.30–7.65 | 8.884.35–13.41 |
| Total shots | 10.78 | 7.07–14.48 | 6.04–15.51 | 14.60 | 11.22–17.98 | 10.29–18.91 | 25.3816.33–34.42 |
| Shots in box | 6.68 | 4.17–9.20 | 3.30–10.06 | 11.91 | 9.61–14.21 | 8.81–15.01 | 18.5912.11–25.07 |
| Blocked shots | 2.86 | 1.28–4.44 | 0.74–4.98 | 4.19 | 2.78–5.61 | 2.29–6.10 | 7.063.04–11.08 |
| Corners | 4.13 | 1.93–6.34 | 1.33–6.93 | 6.15 | 4.17–8.13 | 3.64–8.67 | 10.284.97–15.60 |
| Possession % | 36.07 | 29.75–42.39 | 28.15–43.98 | 65.19 | 58.87–71.51 | 57.28–73.11 | — |
| Passes | 325 | 260–390 | 242–408 | 562 | 497–626 | 480–644 | 887722–1052 |
| Pass accuracy % | 62.32 | 58.11–66.54 | 56.81–67.84 | 77.62 | 73.11–82.12 | 71.78–83.45 | — |
| Fouls | 13.39 | 10.53–16.24 | 9.64–17.13 | 10.74 | 7.80–13.69 | 6.88–14.61 | 24.1316.52–31.73 |
| Offsides | 2.14 | 0.93–3.35 | 0.59–3.70 | 1.88 | 0.71–3.04 | 0.38–3.37 | 4.020.97–7.07 |
| Yellow cards | 1.80 | 0.74–2.85 | 0.47–3.13 | 1.55 | 0.43–2.67 | 0.14–2.96 | 3.340.60–6.08 |
| Red cards | 0.09 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.150.00–0.79 |
| GK saves | 3.60 | 2.18–5.01 | 1.79–5.40 | 2.38 | 0.82–3.93 | 0.39–4.36 | 5.972.19–9.76 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
15%
20%
64%
Shots on target
19%
70%
Total shots
19%
75%
Shots in box
87%
Blocked shots
24%
14%
62%
Corners
21%
68%
Fouls
67%
26%
Offsides
45%
20%
35%
Yellow cards
44%
23%
33%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
61%
15%
24%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+