Ligue 1· Regular Season - 14· · Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.40 | 0.44–2.37 | 0.18–2.63 | 1.45 | 0.59–2.31 | 0.34–2.55 | 2.850.52–5.18 |
| Shots on target | 4.43 | 2.57–6.28 | 2.07–6.78 | 4.10 | 2.39–5.81 | 1.93–6.28 | 8.534.00–13.06 |
| Total shots | 13.39 | 9.69–17.10 | 8.66–18.13 | 11.84 | 8.46–15.22 | 7.53–16.15 | 25.2316.19–34.28 |
| Shots in box | 9.62 | 7.11–12.14 | 6.24–13.00 | 7.62 | 5.32–9.92 | 4.53–10.72 | 17.2510.77–23.72 |
| Blocked shots | 3.57 | 1.99–5.16 | 1.46–5.69 | 2.95 | 1.54–4.37 | 1.05–4.85 | 6.532.51–10.55 |
| Corners | 5.44 | 3.23–7.65 | 2.64–8.24 | 4.71 | 2.74–6.69 | 2.20–7.23 | 10.154.84–15.47 |
| Possession % | 48.98 | 42.67–55.30 | 41.07–56.90 | 51.69 | 45.37–58.01 | 43.77–59.61 | — |
| Passes | 418 | 353–484 | 335–501 | 454 | 389–518 | 372–536 | 872707–1037 |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.26 | 64.05–72.48 | 62.75–73.78 | 68.85 | 64.35–73.36 | 63.02–74.69 | — |
| Fouls | 12.25 | 9.39–15.10 | 8.50–15.99 | 12.90 | 9.96–15.85 | 9.04–16.76 | 25.1517.54–32.75 |
| Offsides | 1.72 | 0.51–2.93 | 0.16–3.27 | 1.99 | 0.83–3.15 | 0.49–3.48 | 3.710.66–6.75 |
| Yellow cards | 1.67 | 0.61–2.72 | 0.34–3.00 | 1.92 | 0.80–3.04 | 0.51–3.33 | 3.590.85–6.33 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.150.00–0.79 |
| GK saves | 2.52 | 1.10–3.93 | 0.71–4.32 | 2.66 | 1.11–4.22 | 0.68–4.65 | 5.181.39–8.97 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
37%
25%
38%
Shots on target
47%
14%
39%
Total shots
58%
34%
Shots in box
64%
27%
Blocked shots
52%
16%
33%
Corners
53%
35%
Fouls
41%
51%
Offsides
34%
21%
45%
Yellow cards
34%
22%
44%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
39%
18%
44%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+