Ligue 1· Regular Season - 14· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.14 | 0.18–2.10 | 0.00–2.36 | 1.77 | 0.91–2.63 | 0.66–2.88 | 2.910.58–5.24 |
| Shots on target | 4.33 | 2.48–6.19 | 1.98–6.69 | 5.33 | 3.63–7.04 | 3.16–7.51 | 9.675.14–14.20 |
| Total shots | 12.74 | 9.04–16.44 | 8.01–17.47 | 14.04 | 10.67–17.42 | 9.73–18.35 | 26.7817.74–35.83 |
| Shots in box | 7.96 | 5.45–10.48 | 4.58–11.34 | 10.08 | 7.78–12.38 | 6.98–13.18 | 18.0411.56–24.52 |
| Blocked shots | 3.57 | 1.99–5.15 | 1.45–5.69 | 3.47 | 2.05–4.88 | 1.57–5.37 | 7.043.02–11.06 |
| Corners | 4.01 | 1.80–6.21 | 1.21–6.81 | 5.09 | 3.11–7.06 | 2.57–7.60 | 9.103.78–14.41 |
| Possession % | 44.85 | 38.53–51.17 | 36.93–52.76 | 54.95 | 48.63–61.26 | 47.03–62.86 | — |
| Passes | 450 | 385–516 | 367–533 | 520 | 455–584 | 437–602 | 970805–1135 |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.62 | 66.41–74.84 | 65.10–76.14 | 74.27 | 69.77–78.78 | 68.44–80.11 | — |
| Fouls | 11.34 | 8.48–14.19 | 7.59–15.08 | 12.23 | 9.28–15.17 | 8.36–16.09 | 23.5615.96–31.17 |
| Offsides | 1.50 | 0.29–2.71 | 0.00–3.05 | 1.84 | 0.68–3.00 | 0.35–3.34 | 3.340.29–6.39 |
| Yellow cards | 1.73 | 0.67–2.78 | 0.40–3.06 | 1.88 | 0.76–3.00 | 0.47–3.29 | 3.610.87–6.35 |
| Red cards | 0.08 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.05 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.140.00–0.78 |
| GK saves | 3.40 | 1.98–4.81 | 1.59–5.20 | 2.50 | 0.94–4.05 | 0.51–4.48 | 5.892.10–9.68 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
24%
23%
52%
Shots on target
31%
56%
Total shots
36%
56%
Shots in box
27%
65%
Blocked shots
44%
15%
41%
Corners
30%
57%
Fouls
39%
53%
Offsides
32%
23%
46%
Yellow cards
36%
22%
42%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
56%
16%
28%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+