Ligue 1· Regular Season - 14· · Allianz Riviera· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.38 | 0.42–2.34 | 0.16–2.60 | 1.70 | 0.84–2.56 | 0.59–2.81 | 3.080.75–5.41 |
| Shots on target | 4.76 | 2.90–6.61 | 2.40–7.11 | 4.99 | 3.28–6.70 | 2.82–7.17 | 9.755.22–14.28 |
| Total shots | 12.97 | 9.26–16.67 | 8.23–17.70 | 13.43 | 10.05–16.80 | 9.12–17.73 | 26.3917.35–35.44 |
| Shots in box | 8.13 | 5.62–10.65 | 4.75–11.52 | 8.54 | 6.24–10.84 | 5.44–11.64 | 16.6710.20–23.15 |
| Blocked shots | 3.36 | 1.78–4.95 | 1.25–5.48 | 3.52 | 2.10–4.93 | 1.61–5.42 | 6.882.86–10.90 |
| Corners | 4.92 | 2.71–7.12 | 2.12–7.72 | 5.11 | 3.13–7.09 | 2.60–7.63 | 10.034.71–15.34 |
| Possession % | 50.00 | 43.68–56.31 | 42.08–57.91 | 49.09 | 42.77–55.41 | 41.17–57.00 | — |
| Passes | 506 | 441–571 | 423–589 | 483 | 419–548 | 401–565 | 989824–1154 |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.76 | 67.54–75.98 | 66.24–77.28 | 73.24 | 68.74–77.75 | 67.41–79.08 | — |
| Fouls | 11.17 | 8.31–14.02 | 7.42–14.91 | 10.21 | 7.27–13.16 | 6.35–14.07 | 21.3813.77–28.98 |
| Offsides | 1.94 | 0.74–3.15 | 0.39–3.50 | 1.61 | 0.45–2.78 | 0.12–3.11 | 3.560.51–6.61 |
| Yellow cards | 1.86 | 0.80–2.91 | 0.53–3.19 | 1.71 | 0.59–2.83 | 0.30–3.12 | 3.570.83–6.31 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.130.00–0.78 |
| GK saves | 3.43 | 2.02–4.85 | 1.63–5.24 | 2.61 | 1.05–4.16 | 0.62–4.59 | 6.042.25–9.83 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
31%
24%
45%
Shots on target
41%
46%
Total shots
43%
50%
Shots in box
41%
49%
Blocked shots
40%
15%
45%
Corners
41%
46%
Fouls
54%
38%
Offsides
46%
22%
32%
Yellow cards
42%
22%
36%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
55%
16%
29%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+