Ligue 1· Regular Season - 16· · Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.74 | 0.78–2.70 | 0.52–2.96 | 0.98 | 0.12–1.84 | 0.00–2.08 | 2.720.39–5.05 |
| Shots on target | 4.64 | 2.78–6.50 | 2.28–6.99 | 3.72 | 2.01–5.43 | 1.55–5.90 | 8.363.83–12.89 |
| Total shots | 13.60 | 9.90–17.31 | 8.87–18.34 | 11.70 | 8.33–15.08 | 7.39–16.01 | 25.3116.26–34.35 |
| Shots in box | 10.63 | 8.12–13.15 | 7.25–14.01 | 6.79 | 4.49–9.09 | 3.69–9.89 | 17.4210.94–23.90 |
| Blocked shots | 3.78 | 2.20–5.37 | 1.67–5.90 | 2.75 | 1.34–4.17 | 0.85–4.65 | 6.542.52–10.56 |
| Corners | 5.10 | 2.89–7.30 | 2.30–7.90 | 4.58 | 2.61–6.56 | 2.07–7.10 | 9.684.37–15.00 |
| Possession % | 57.45 | 51.14–63.77 | 49.54–65.37 | 43.40 | 37.08–49.72 | 35.49–51.32 | — |
| Passes | 488 | 423–553 | 405–571 | 350 | 286–415 | 268–432 | 838673–1003 |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.76 | 66.55–74.98 | 65.25–76.28 | 62.13 | 57.63–66.64 | 56.30–67.97 | — |
| Fouls | 11.85 | 8.99–14.70 | 8.10–15.59 | 12.14 | 9.19–15.08 | 8.27–16.00 | 23.9816.38–31.59 |
| Offsides | 1.63 | 0.42–2.84 | 0.07–3.18 | 1.96 | 0.79–3.12 | 0.46–3.45 | 3.580.54–6.63 |
| Yellow cards | 1.43 | 0.37–2.48 | 0.10–2.76 | 1.83 | 0.71–2.96 | 0.42–3.25 | 3.260.52–6.00 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.140.00–0.78 |
| GK saves | 2.38 | 0.97–3.79 | 0.58–4.18 | 2.96 | 1.40–4.51 | 0.97–4.94 | 5.341.55–9.13 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
55%
24%
21%
Shots on target
56%
13%
31%
Total shots
61%
32%
Shots in box
79%
15%
Blocked shots
58%
15%
27%
Corners
50%
37%
Fouls
44%
48%
Offsides
33%
22%
46%
Yellow cards
30%
23%
47%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
32%
17%
51%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+