Ligue 1· Regular Season - 18· · MMArena· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.28 | 0.32–2.24 | 0.06–2.50 | 1.70 | 0.84–2.56 | 0.59–2.81 | 2.980.65–5.31 |
| Shots on target | 4.49 | 2.63–6.34 | 2.13–6.84 | 5.30 | 3.59–7.01 | 3.12–7.47 | 9.795.25–14.32 |
| Total shots | 12.80 | 9.10–16.50 | 8.07–17.54 | 13.43 | 10.05–16.81 | 9.12–17.74 | 26.2317.19–35.28 |
| Shots in box | 7.60 | 5.09–10.12 | 4.22–10.98 | 9.14 | 6.84–11.44 | 6.04–12.24 | 16.7510.27–23.22 |
| Blocked shots | 2.97 | 1.38–4.55 | 0.85–5.09 | 3.66 | 2.24–5.07 | 1.76–5.56 | 6.632.61–10.65 |
| Corners | 4.91 | 2.71–7.12 | 2.11–7.71 | 5.55 | 3.57–7.53 | 3.03–8.06 | 10.465.15–15.78 |
| Possession % | 46.28 | 39.96–52.60 | 38.37–54.19 | 53.07 | 46.75–59.39 | 45.16–60.99 | — |
| Passes | 470 | 404–535 | 387–553 | 508 | 443–573 | 426–590 | 978813–1143 |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.13 | 65.91–74.34 | 64.61–75.64 | 73.76 | 69.25–78.27 | 67.92–79.60 | — |
| Fouls | 10.07 | 7.21–12.93 | 6.33–13.81 | 11.72 | 8.77–14.66 | 7.86–15.58 | 21.7914.18–29.39 |
| Offsides | 1.65 | 0.44–2.86 | 0.09–3.20 | 2.14 | 0.98–3.30 | 0.64–3.63 | 3.790.74–6.83 |
| Yellow cards | 1.61 | 0.55–2.66 | 0.28–2.94 | 1.58 | 0.46–2.70 | 0.17–2.99 | 3.190.45–5.93 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.110.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 2.86 | 1.44–4.27 | 1.05–4.66 | 3.05 | 1.50–4.60 | 1.06–5.03 | 5.902.12–9.69 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
29%
24%
47%
Shots on target
34%
54%
Total shots
41%
51%
Shots in box
31%
60%
Blocked shots
32%
15%
53%
Corners
36%
52%
Fouls
32%
60%
Offsides
30%
21%
49%
Yellow cards
39%
23%
38%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
39%
17%
45%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+