Ligue 1· Regular Season - 19· · Stade Océane· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.53 | 0.56–2.49 | 0.30–2.75 | 1.33 | 0.47–2.19 | 0.23–2.44 | 2.860.53–5.19 |
| Shots on target | 5.13 | 3.27–6.98 | 2.77–7.48 | 4.33 | 2.62–6.03 | 2.15–6.50 | 9.454.92–13.98 |
| Total shots | 15.15 | 11.45–18.85 | 10.42–19.88 | 12.91 | 9.53–16.29 | 8.60–17.22 | 28.0619.01–37.10 |
| Shots in box | 10.08 | 7.57–12.60 | 6.70–13.46 | 7.60 | 5.30–9.91 | 4.51–10.70 | 17.6911.21–24.17 |
| Blocked shots | 3.86 | 2.27–5.44 | 1.74–5.98 | 3.18 | 1.77–4.60 | 1.28–5.08 | 7.043.02–11.06 |
| Corners | 5.40 | 3.20–7.61 | 2.60–8.20 | 4.49 | 2.51–6.47 | 1.98–7.01 | 9.894.58–15.21 |
| Possession % | 51.45 | 45.13–57.77 | 43.54–59.37 | 48.52 | 42.20–54.84 | 40.60–56.44 | — |
| Passes | 428 | 363–493 | 345–511 | 446 | 381–511 | 364–528 | 874709–1039 |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.39 | 63.18–71.61 | 61.88–72.91 | 68.87 | 64.36–73.37 | 63.03–74.70 | — |
| Fouls | 11.78 | 8.93–14.64 | 8.04–15.52 | 14.47 | 11.53–17.42 | 10.61–18.34 | 26.2518.65–33.86 |
| Offsides | 1.72 | 0.51–2.93 | 0.17–3.27 | 1.78 | 0.62–2.94 | 0.29–3.28 | 3.500.45–6.55 |
| Yellow cards | 1.72 | 0.66–2.77 | 0.39–3.04 | 1.92 | 0.80–3.04 | 0.51–3.33 | 3.630.89–6.37 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.10 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.44 | 0.140.00–0.78 |
| GK saves | 2.64 | 1.23–4.06 | 0.84–4.45 | 2.93 | 1.37–4.48 | 0.94–4.91 | 5.571.78–9.36 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
42%
25%
33%
Shots on target
54%
33%
Total shots
63%
30%
Shots in box
68%
24%
Blocked shots
52%
15%
33%
Corners
55%
33%
Fouls
27%
67%
Offsides
38%
22%
40%
Yellow cards
35%
22%
43%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
37%
17%
46%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+