Ligue 1· Regular Season - 21· · Stade Raymond-Kopa· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.03 | 0.07–2.00 | 0.00–2.26 | 1.67 | 0.81–2.53 | 0.56–2.77 | 2.700.37–5.03 |
| Shots on target | 3.76 | 1.90–5.62 | 1.41–6.12 | 5.30 | 3.59–7.01 | 3.12–7.47 | 9.064.53–13.59 |
| Total shots | 11.24 | 7.53–14.94 | 6.50–15.97 | 14.18 | 10.80–17.56 | 9.87–18.49 | 25.4216.37–34.46 |
| Shots in box | 7.18 | 4.66–9.69 | 3.80–10.56 | 9.07 | 6.77–11.37 | 5.97–12.17 | 16.259.77–22.72 |
| Blocked shots | 3.33 | 1.74–4.91 | 1.21–5.44 | 3.36 | 1.95–4.77 | 1.46–5.26 | 6.692.67–10.70 |
| Corners | 5.03 | 2.83–7.24 | 2.23–7.83 | 4.81 | 2.83–6.79 | 2.29–7.33 | 9.844.53–15.16 |
| Possession % | 42.38 | 36.06–48.69 | 34.46–50.29 | 56.78 | 50.46–63.10 | 48.86–64.69 | — |
| Passes | 421 | 355–486 | 338–504 | 566 | 502–631 | 484–649 | 987822–1152 |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.65 | 60.43–68.86 | 59.13–70.17 | 73.40 | 68.89–77.90 | 67.56–79.23 | — |
| Fouls | 10.95 | 8.10–13.81 | 7.21–14.70 | 11.56 | 8.61–14.50 | 7.69–15.42 | 22.5114.91–30.12 |
| Offsides | 1.70 | 0.49–2.91 | 0.15–3.26 | 1.97 | 0.81–3.14 | 0.48–3.47 | 3.680.63–6.73 |
| Yellow cards | 1.58 | 0.53–2.64 | 0.25–2.91 | 1.84 | 0.72–2.96 | 0.43–3.25 | 3.420.69–6.16 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.05 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.090.00–0.73 |
| GK saves | 3.37 | 1.96–4.79 | 1.57–5.18 | 2.45 | 0.90–4.00 | 0.46–4.44 | 5.822.03–9.61 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
23%
24%
52%
Shots on target
25%
63%
Total shots
25%
69%
Shots in box
28%
63%
Blocked shots
42%
16%
43%
Corners
46%
41%
Fouls
41%
51%
Offsides
34%
21%
45%
Yellow cards
33%
22%
44%
Red cards
92%
GK saves
57%
16%
27%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+