Ligue 1· Regular Season - 21· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.69 | 0.72–2.65 | 0.46–2.91 | 1.00 | 0.14–1.86 | 0.00–2.11 | 2.690.36–5.02 |
| Shots on target | 5.22 | 3.36–7.07 | 2.86–7.57 | 3.87 | 2.16–5.58 | 1.69–6.04 | 9.094.55–13.62 |
| Total shots | 15.39 | 11.69–19.10 | 10.66–20.13 | 10.79 | 7.41–14.16 | 6.48–15.10 | 26.1817.14–35.22 |
| Shots in box | 10.60 | 8.09–13.12 | 7.22–13.98 | 6.60 | 4.30–8.90 | 3.50–9.70 | 17.2010.72–23.68 |
| Blocked shots | 4.09 | 2.50–5.67 | 1.97–6.21 | 2.78 | 1.36–4.19 | 0.88–4.68 | 6.872.85–10.89 |
| Corners | 5.87 | 3.66–8.08 | 3.07–8.67 | 3.97 | 1.99–5.94 | 1.45–6.48 | 9.844.52–15.15 |
| Possession % | 55.40 | 49.08–61.72 | 47.49–63.31 | 43.31 | 36.99–49.63 | 35.39–51.22 | — |
| Passes | 566 | 501–631 | 483–649 | 439 | 375–504 | 357–521 | 1005840–1170 |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.25 | 71.03–79.46 | 69.73–80.76 | 69.29 | 64.78–73.80 | 63.45–75.13 | — |
| Fouls | 11.96 | 9.11–14.82 | 8.22–15.71 | 11.82 | 8.88–14.77 | 7.96–15.69 | 23.7916.18–31.39 |
| Offsides | 2.24 | 1.03–3.45 | 0.69–3.80 | 1.44 | 0.28–2.60 | 0.00–2.94 | 3.680.63–6.73 |
| Yellow cards | 1.26 | 0.20–2.32 | 0.00–2.59 | 1.67 | 0.55–2.79 | 0.26–3.08 | 2.930.19–5.67 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.090.00–0.74 |
| GK saves | 2.42 | 1.01–3.84 | 0.62–4.23 | 3.16 | 1.60–4.71 | 1.17–5.14 | 5.581.79–9.37 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
53%
24%
22%
Shots on target
61%
27%
Total shots
79%
16%
Shots in box
80%
14%
Blocked shots
62%
14%
24%
Corners
67%
22%
Fouls
47%
45%
Offsides
56%
20%
24%
Yellow cards
29%
24%
47%
Red cards
91%
GK saves
30%
17%
54%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+