Ligue 1· Regular Season - 21· · Allianz Riviera· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.41 | 0.44–2.37 | 0.18–2.63 | 1.15 | 0.29–2.00 | 0.04–2.25 | 2.550.22–4.88 |
| Shots on target | 4.94 | 3.08–6.79 | 2.58–7.29 | 3.82 | 2.11–5.52 | 1.64–5.99 | 8.754.22–13.28 |
| Total shots | 13.59 | 9.89–17.29 | 8.86–18.32 | 11.04 | 7.66–14.42 | 6.73–15.35 | 24.6315.59–33.67 |
| Shots in box | 8.73 | 6.22–11.25 | 5.35–12.11 | 7.19 | 4.89–9.49 | 4.09–10.29 | 15.929.44–22.40 |
| Blocked shots | 3.56 | 1.97–5.14 | 1.44–5.68 | 2.56 | 1.15–3.98 | 0.66–4.46 | 6.122.10–10.14 |
| Corners | 5.59 | 3.38–7.79 | 2.79–8.39 | 4.46 | 2.48–6.44 | 1.94–6.97 | 10.054.73–15.36 |
| Possession % | 57.65 | 51.33–63.97 | 49.74–65.56 | 42.47 | 36.15–48.79 | 34.55–50.39 | — |
| Passes | 556 | 491–622 | 473–639 | 380 | 315–445 | 298–462 | 936771–1102 |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.53 | 65.31–73.75 | 64.01–75.05 | 68.48 | 63.98–72.99 | 62.65–74.32 | — |
| Fouls | 10.19 | 7.33–13.05 | 6.45–13.93 | 10.35 | 7.40–13.30 | 6.49–14.21 | 20.5412.94–28.15 |
| Offsides | 1.92 | 0.71–3.13 | 0.37–3.47 | 1.45 | 0.29–2.62 | 0.00–2.95 | 3.370.32–6.42 |
| Yellow cards | 1.56 | 0.51–2.62 | 0.23–2.89 | 1.62 | 0.50–2.74 | 0.21–3.03 | 3.180.44–5.92 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.100.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 2.48 | 1.06–3.89 | 0.68–4.28 | 2.76 | 1.20–4.31 | 0.77–4.74 | 5.241.45–9.03 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
43%
26%
31%
Shots on target
58%
29%
Total shots
66%
27%
Shots in box
60%
30%
Blocked shots
58%
15%
27%
Corners
58%
30%
Fouls
44%
47%
Offsides
49%
22%
29%
Yellow cards
37%
24%
39%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
36%
18%
46%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+