Ligue 1· Regular Season - 23· · Stade de l'Aube· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.10 | 0.14–2.06 | 0.00–2.32 | 1.40 | 0.54–2.26 | 0.29–2.51 | 2.500.17–4.83 |
| Shots on target | 4.39 | 2.53–6.24 | 2.03–6.74 | 4.28 | 2.58–5.99 | 2.11–6.46 | 8.674.14–13.20 |
| Total shots | 14.02 | 10.31–17.72 | 9.28–18.75 | 11.81 | 8.43–15.19 | 7.50–16.12 | 25.8316.79–34.87 |
| Shots in box | 8.12 | 5.60–10.63 | 4.74–11.50 | 8.70 | 6.39–11.00 | 5.60–11.79 | 16.8110.33–23.29 |
| Blocked shots | 3.62 | 2.03–5.20 | 1.50–5.73 | 3.32 | 1.90–4.73 | 1.41–5.22 | 6.932.91–10.95 |
| Corners | 5.48 | 3.27–7.68 | 2.68–8.28 | 4.61 | 2.63–6.59 | 2.09–7.13 | 10.094.77–15.41 |
| Possession % | 42.64 | 36.33–48.96 | 34.73–50.56 | 57.90 | 51.58–64.22 | 49.98–65.82 | — |
| Passes | 394 | 329–459 | 311–477 | 524 | 459–588 | 442–606 | 918753–1083 |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.68 | 62.47–70.90 | 61.17–72.20 | 69.91 | 65.40–74.41 | 64.07–75.74 | — |
| Fouls | 13.37 | 10.51–16.22 | 9.62–17.11 | 10.83 | 7.89–13.78 | 6.97–14.69 | 24.2016.59–31.80 |
| Offsides | 1.98 | 0.77–3.18 | 0.42–3.53 | 1.63 | 0.47–2.80 | 0.14–3.13 | 3.610.56–6.66 |
| Yellow cards | 1.48 | 0.42–2.53 | 0.15–2.81 | 1.38 | 0.26–2.50 | 0.00–2.79 | 2.860.12–5.60 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.100.00–0.74 |
| GK saves | 2.91 | 1.50–4.33 | 1.11–4.71 | 2.81 | 1.26–4.37 | 0.83–4.80 | 5.721.93–9.51 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
30%
27%
44%
Shots on target
44%
14%
42%
Total shots
63%
30%
Shots in box
40%
51%
Blocked shots
47%
15%
38%
Corners
55%
33%
Fouls
66%
27%
Offsides
46%
22%
32%
Yellow cards
40%
25%
35%
Red cards
91%
GK saves
43%
17%
40%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+