Ligue 1· Regular Season - 24· · Stade Océane· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.34 | 0.38–2.30 | 0.12–2.56 | 2.02 | 1.16–2.88 | 0.92–3.13 | 3.361.03–5.69 |
| Shots on target | 4.88 | 3.03–6.74 | 2.53–7.24 | 5.40 | 3.69–7.10 | 3.22–7.57 | 10.285.75–14.81 |
| Total shots | 14.33 | 10.63–18.04 | 9.60–19.07 | 14.94 | 11.57–18.32 | 10.63–19.25 | 29.2820.23–38.32 |
| Shots in box | 8.47 | 5.95–10.98 | 5.08–11.85 | 9.21 | 6.91–11.51 | 6.11–12.31 | 17.6811.20–24.16 |
| Blocked shots | 3.49 | 1.91–5.08 | 1.37–5.61 | 3.87 | 2.45–5.28 | 1.97–5.77 | 7.363.34–11.38 |
| Corners | 4.91 | 2.71–7.12 | 2.11–7.71 | 5.45 | 3.47–7.43 | 2.94–7.97 | 10.365.05–15.68 |
| Possession % | 43.43 | 37.11–49.75 | 35.52–51.35 | 56.07 | 49.75–62.39 | 48.15–63.98 | — |
| Passes | 373 | 308–439 | 290–456 | 484 | 419–549 | 402–566 | 857692–1022 |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.25 | 61.03–69.46 | 59.73–70.76 | 70.95 | 66.44–75.46 | 65.11–76.79 | — |
| Fouls | 11.82 | 8.96–14.67 | 8.08–15.56 | 12.32 | 9.38–15.27 | 8.46–16.18 | 24.1416.53–31.74 |
| Offsides | 1.97 | 0.76–3.17 | 0.41–3.52 | 1.83 | 0.67–3.00 | 0.34–3.33 | 3.800.75–6.85 |
| Yellow cards | 1.83 | 0.78–2.89 | 0.51–3.16 | 1.81 | 0.69–2.93 | 0.40–3.22 | 3.640.90–6.38 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.130.00–0.77 |
| GK saves | 3.24 | 1.83–4.66 | 1.44–5.05 | 3.03 | 1.47–4.58 | 1.04–5.01 | 6.272.48–10.06 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
25%
21%
53%
Shots on target
37%
50%
Total shots
42%
51%
Shots in box
38%
52%
Blocked shots
37%
15%
48%
Corners
37%
50%
Fouls
42%
50%
Offsides
42%
21%
37%
Yellow cards
40%
22%
39%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
45%
16%
39%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+