Ligue 1· Regular Season - 24· · MMArena· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.39 | 0.43–2.35 | 0.17–2.61 | 2.48 | 1.62–3.34 | 1.37–3.58 | 3.871.54–6.20 |
| Shots on target | 4.59 | 2.74–6.45 | 2.24–6.95 | 6.38 | 4.67–8.08 | 4.20–8.55 | 10.976.44–15.50 |
| Total shots | 12.67 | 8.97–16.38 | 7.94–17.41 | 16.24 | 12.86–19.62 | 11.93–20.55 | 28.9119.87–37.96 |
| Shots in box | 7.94 | 5.43–10.46 | 4.56–11.32 | 12.42 | 10.12–14.73 | 9.33–15.52 | 20.3713.89–26.85 |
| Blocked shots | 3.20 | 1.62–4.78 | 1.08–5.32 | 4.55 | 3.13–5.96 | 2.65–6.45 | 7.753.73–11.77 |
| Corners | 4.87 | 2.67–7.08 | 2.07–7.67 | 6.44 | 4.46–8.42 | 3.92–8.95 | 11.315.99–16.62 |
| Possession % | 42.97 | 36.66–49.29 | 35.06–50.89 | 56.07 | 49.75–62.39 | 48.15–63.99 | — |
| Passes | 413 | 347–478 | 330–496 | 522 | 458–587 | 440–604 | 935770–1100 |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.19 | 61.97–70.41 | 60.67–71.71 | 72.06 | 67.55–76.57 | 66.22–77.90 | — |
| Fouls | 11.13 | 8.28–13.99 | 7.39–14.87 | 11.27 | 8.33–14.22 | 7.41–15.14 | 22.4014.80–30.01 |
| Offsides | 2.04 | 0.83–3.25 | 0.49–3.59 | 2.23 | 1.07–3.40 | 0.74–3.73 | 4.281.23–7.32 |
| Yellow cards | 1.82 | 0.76–2.87 | 0.49–3.15 | 1.91 | 0.79–3.03 | 0.50–3.32 | 3.730.99–6.46 |
| Red cards | 0.08 | 0.00–0.23 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.140.00–0.79 |
| GK saves | 3.89 | 2.47–5.30 | 2.08–5.69 | 2.94 | 1.39–4.50 | 0.96–4.93 | 6.833.04–10.62 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
20%
18%
61%
Shots on target
24%
65%
Total shots
22%
72%
Shots in box
13%
81%
Blocked shots
25%
13%
62%
Corners
27%
62%
Fouls
45%
47%
Offsides
36%
20%
44%
Yellow cards
37%
22%
41%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
57%
15%
29%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+