Ligue 1· Regular Season - 24· · Allianz Riviera· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.53 | 0.57–2.49 | 0.31–2.75 | 1.39 | 0.53–2.25 | 0.28–2.49 | 2.920.59–5.25 |
| Shots on target | 5.04 | 3.18–6.89 | 2.68–7.39 | 4.09 | 2.39–5.80 | 1.92–6.27 | 9.134.60–13.66 |
| Total shots | 14.29 | 10.58–17.99 | 9.55–19.02 | 12.10 | 8.72–15.47 | 7.79–16.40 | 26.3817.34–35.43 |
| Shots in box | 9.17 | 6.65–11.68 | 5.79–12.55 | 7.77 | 5.47–10.07 | 4.67–10.87 | 16.9410.46–23.42 |
| Blocked shots | 3.70 | 2.11–5.28 | 1.58–5.82 | 2.65 | 1.24–4.07 | 0.75–4.56 | 6.352.33–10.37 |
| Corners | 5.32 | 3.12–7.53 | 2.52–8.12 | 4.60 | 2.63–6.58 | 2.09–7.12 | 9.934.61–15.24 |
| Possession % | 53.03 | 46.72–59.35 | 45.12–60.95 | 47.33 | 41.01–53.65 | 39.42–55.25 | — |
| Passes | 563 | 498–628 | 480–646 | 470 | 405–534 | 387–552 | 1032867–1198 |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.07 | 69.86–78.29 | 68.56–79.59 | 72.31 | 67.80–76.81 | 66.47–78.14 | — |
| Fouls | 11.19 | 8.34–14.05 | 7.45–14.94 | 11.84 | 8.89–14.78 | 7.98–15.70 | 23.0315.43–30.64 |
| Offsides | 1.77 | 0.56–2.98 | 0.22–3.33 | 1.47 | 0.31–2.64 | 0.00–2.97 | 3.250.20–6.29 |
| Yellow cards | 1.52 | 0.47–2.58 | 0.19–2.85 | 1.76 | 0.64–2.88 | 0.35–3.17 | 3.280.55–6.02 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.10 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.130.00–0.77 |
| GK saves | 2.53 | 1.12–3.95 | 0.73–4.34 | 2.87 | 1.31–4.42 | 0.88–4.85 | 5.401.61–9.19 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
41%
25%
35%
Shots on target
56%
32%
Total shots
63%
30%
Shots in box
59%
32%
Blocked shots
58%
15%
27%
Corners
53%
35%
Fouls
41%
51%
Offsides
45%
23%
32%
Yellow cards
33%
23%
44%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
36%
17%
47%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+