Ligue 1· Regular Season - 27· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.29 | 0.32–2.25 | 0.06–2.51 | 2.01 | 1.15–2.87 | 0.91–3.12 | 3.300.97–5.63 |
| Shots on target | 4.30 | 2.45–6.16 | 1.95–6.66 | 5.67 | 3.96–7.38 | 3.49–7.84 | 9.975.44–14.50 |
| Total shots | 12.36 | 8.66–16.06 | 7.63–17.09 | 15.90 | 12.52–19.28 | 11.59–20.21 | 28.2619.22–37.30 |
| Shots in box | 7.64 | 5.12–10.15 | 4.26–11.02 | 10.56 | 8.25–12.86 | 7.46–13.65 | 18.1911.71–24.67 |
| Blocked shots | 3.12 | 1.53–4.70 | 1.00–5.24 | 3.82 | 2.41–5.24 | 1.92–5.72 | 6.942.92–10.96 |
| Corners | 4.12 | 1.91–6.32 | 1.32–6.92 | 5.88 | 3.90–7.85 | 3.36–8.39 | 9.994.68–15.31 |
| Possession % | 46.18 | 39.86–52.50 | 38.26–54.09 | 53.02 | 46.70–59.34 | 45.10–60.94 | — |
| Passes | 444 | 378–509 | 361–527 | 496 | 432–561 | 414–578 | 940775–1105 |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.71 | 64.49–72.92 | 63.19–74.22 | 74.11 | 69.61–78.62 | 68.28–79.95 | — |
| Fouls | 10.85 | 8.00–13.71 | 7.11–14.60 | 12.66 | 9.72–15.61 | 8.80–16.53 | 23.5215.91–31.12 |
| Offsides | 1.52 | 0.31–2.73 | 0.00–3.07 | 1.84 | 0.67–3.00 | 0.34–3.33 | 3.360.31–6.41 |
| Yellow cards | 1.62 | 0.56–2.67 | 0.29–2.95 | 1.90 | 0.78–3.02 | 0.49–3.31 | 3.520.78–6.26 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.120.00–0.77 |
| GK saves | 3.44 | 2.03–4.85 | 1.64–5.24 | 2.82 | 1.27–4.38 | 0.84–4.81 | 6.262.47–10.05 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
24%
22%
54%
Shots on target
28%
61%
Total shots
22%
72%
Shots in box
21%
71%
Blocked shots
32%
15%
53%
Corners
24%
65%
Fouls
32%
61%
Offsides
32%
23%
45%
Yellow cards
33%
22%
45%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
52%
16%
33%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+