Ligue 1· Regular Season - 27· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.04 | 1.08–3.00 | 0.82–3.26 | 1.10 | 0.24–1.96 | 0.00–2.21 | 3.140.81–5.47 |
| Shots on target | 6.12 | 4.27–7.98 | 3.77–8.48 | 3.97 | 2.26–5.68 | 1.79–6.15 | 10.095.56–14.62 |
| Total shots | 16.61 | 12.91–20.31 | 11.88–21.34 | 10.85 | 7.47–14.23 | 6.54–15.16 | 27.4618.42–36.50 |
| Shots in box | 12.58 | 10.06–15.09 | 9.20–15.96 | 7.00 | 4.70–9.30 | 3.90–10.10 | 19.5713.10–26.05 |
| Blocked shots | 4.33 | 2.75–5.92 | 2.21–6.45 | 2.67 | 1.25–4.08 | 0.76–4.57 | 7.002.98–11.02 |
| Corners | 6.52 | 4.31–8.72 | 3.72–9.32 | 4.15 | 2.17–6.13 | 1.64–6.67 | 10.675.35–15.99 |
| Possession % | 57.36 | 51.04–63.67 | 49.44–65.27 | 42.36 | 36.04–48.68 | 34.45–50.28 | — |
| Passes | 530 | 465–596 | 447–613 | 397 | 332–461 | 314–479 | 927762–1092 |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.81 | 74.59–83.03 | 73.29–84.33 | 70.12 | 65.62–74.63 | 64.29–75.96 | — |
| Fouls | 11.10 | 8.24–13.96 | 7.36–14.84 | 11.57 | 8.63–14.52 | 7.71–15.44 | 22.6815.07–30.28 |
| Offsides | 2.02 | 0.81–3.22 | 0.46–3.57 | 1.61 | 0.45–2.77 | 0.11–3.10 | 3.620.57–6.67 |
| Yellow cards | 1.54 | 0.48–2.59 | 0.21–2.86 | 2.00 | 0.88–3.12 | 0.59–3.41 | 3.530.79–6.27 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.110.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 2.61 | 1.19–4.02 | 0.80–4.41 | 3.45 | 1.90–5.01 | 1.47–5.44 | 6.062.27–9.85 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
59%
21%
20%
Shots on target
70%
20%
Total shots
84%
Shots in box
88%
Blocked shots
67%
20%
Corners
72%
19%
Fouls
42%
50%
Offsides
47%
21%
31%
Yellow cards
30%
22%
49%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
29%
16%
55%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+