Ligue 1· Regular Season - 27· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.97 | 1.00–2.93 | 0.74–3.19 | 1.02 | 0.16–1.88 | 0.00–2.12 | 2.980.65–5.31 |
| Shots on target | 5.97 | 4.12–7.83 | 3.62–8.33 | 4.07 | 2.36–5.77 | 1.89–6.24 | 10.045.51–14.57 |
| Total shots | 15.99 | 12.28–19.69 | 11.25–20.72 | 11.52 | 8.14–14.90 | 7.21–15.83 | 27.5118.46–36.55 |
| Shots in box | 11.15 | 8.63–13.66 | 7.77–14.53 | 8.10 | 5.80–10.40 | 5.00–11.20 | 19.2412.77–25.72 |
| Blocked shots | 4.59 | 3.00–6.17 | 2.47–6.70 | 2.92 | 1.50–4.33 | 1.02–4.82 | 7.503.48–11.52 |
| Corners | 5.75 | 3.55–7.96 | 2.95–8.55 | 3.78 | 1.81–5.76 | 1.27–6.30 | 9.544.22–14.85 |
| Possession % | 67.56 | 61.24–73.88 | 59.65–75.47 | 34.07 | 27.75–40.39 | 26.15–41.99 | — |
| Passes | 675 | 610–741 | 592–758 | 354 | 289–418 | 272–436 | 1029864–1194 |
| Pass accuracy % | 84.39 | 80.17–88.61 | 78.87–89.91 | 68.91 | 64.40–73.41 | 63.07–74.75 | — |
| Fouls | 10.81 | 7.95–13.67 | 7.07–14.55 | 12.27 | 9.33–15.22 | 8.41–16.13 | 23.0815.48–30.69 |
| Offsides | 1.68 | 0.47–2.89 | 0.13–3.24 | 1.68 | 0.52–2.84 | 0.18–3.17 | 3.360.31–6.41 |
| Yellow cards | 1.35 | 0.29–2.41 | 0.02–2.68 | 2.06 | 0.94–3.18 | 0.65–3.47 | 3.410.67–6.15 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.11 | 0.00–0.30 | 0.00–0.45 | 0.140.00–0.78 |
| GK saves | 2.39 | 0.97–3.80 | 0.58–4.19 | 3.50 | 1.94–5.05 | 1.51–5.48 | 5.882.09–9.67 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
59%
22%
19%
Shots on target
67%
22%
Total shots
78%
17%
Shots in box
72%
21%
Blocked shots
66%
21%
Corners
68%
21%
Fouls
34%
58%
Offsides
39%
23%
39%
Yellow cards
25%
21%
54%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
25%
15%
60%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+