Ligue 1· Regular Season - 27· · Stade Louis II· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.57 | 0.61–2.53 | 0.35–2.79 | 1.50 | 0.64–2.36 | 0.39–2.60 | 3.070.74–5.40 |
| Shots on target | 4.83 | 2.98–6.69 | 2.48–7.19 | 5.25 | 3.54–6.95 | 3.07–7.42 | 10.085.55–14.61 |
| Total shots | 13.66 | 9.95–17.36 | 8.92–18.39 | 14.41 | 11.03–17.79 | 10.10–18.72 | 28.0719.03–37.11 |
| Shots in box | 8.83 | 6.31–11.34 | 5.44–12.21 | 10.23 | 7.93–12.53 | 7.13–13.33 | 19.0612.58–25.54 |
| Blocked shots | 3.46 | 1.88–5.05 | 1.34–5.58 | 3.89 | 2.47–5.30 | 1.99–5.79 | 7.353.33–11.37 |
| Corners | 5.17 | 2.96–7.37 | 2.37–7.97 | 5.35 | 3.38–7.33 | 2.84–7.87 | 10.525.20–15.84 |
| Possession % | 49.24 | 42.92–55.56 | 41.32–57.15 | 51.30 | 44.98–57.62 | 43.39–59.22 | — |
| Passes | 473 | 408–538 | 390–556 | 514 | 449–578 | 431–596 | 987822–1152 |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.23 | 66.02–74.45 | 64.72–75.75 | 71.51 | 67.00–76.02 | 65.67–77.35 | — |
| Fouls | 10.97 | 8.11–13.82 | 7.22–14.71 | 11.65 | 8.70–14.59 | 7.78–15.51 | 22.6115.01–30.22 |
| Offsides | 2.18 | 0.97–3.39 | 0.63–3.73 | 1.80 | 0.63–2.96 | 0.30–3.29 | 3.980.93–7.03 |
| Yellow cards | 1.63 | 0.58–2.69 | 0.30–2.96 | 1.75 | 0.63–2.87 | 0.34–3.16 | 3.380.64–6.12 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.110.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 3.61 | 2.19–5.02 | 1.80–5.41 | 2.90 | 1.35–4.46 | 0.92–4.89 | 6.512.72–10.30 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
40%
24%
36%
Shots on target
39%
49%
Total shots
41%
52%
Shots in box
33%
58%
Blocked shots
36%
15%
49%
Corners
42%
46%
Fouls
40%
51%
Offsides
47%
20%
32%
Yellow cards
36%
23%
41%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
53%
15%
32%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+