Ligue 1· Regular Season - 29· · MMArena· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.48 | 0.52–2.45 | 0.26–2.71 | 1.62 | 0.76–2.48 | 0.52–2.73 | 3.100.78–5.43 |
| Shots on target | 5.24 | 3.39–7.10 | 2.89–7.60 | 4.88 | 3.18–6.59 | 2.71–7.06 | 10.135.59–14.66 |
| Total shots | 14.82 | 11.11–18.52 | 10.08–19.55 | 13.68 | 10.31–17.06 | 9.37–17.99 | 28.5019.46–37.54 |
| Shots in box | 9.02 | 6.50–11.53 | 5.63–12.40 | 9.52 | 7.22–11.82 | 6.42–12.62 | 18.5312.05–25.01 |
| Blocked shots | 3.35 | 1.76–4.93 | 1.23–5.46 | 3.86 | 2.44–5.27 | 1.96–5.76 | 7.203.19–11.22 |
| Corners | 5.19 | 2.98–7.39 | 2.39–7.99 | 5.25 | 3.27–7.23 | 2.73–7.76 | 10.435.12–15.75 |
| Possession % | 52.73 | 46.41–59.05 | 44.82–60.64 | 48.60 | 42.28–54.92 | 40.68–56.51 | — |
| Passes | 460 | 395–526 | 377–543 | 388 | 323–452 | 306–470 | 848683–1013 |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.47 | 64.25–72.69 | 62.95–73.99 | 69.10 | 64.59–73.60 | 63.26–74.93 | — |
| Fouls | 11.61 | 8.75–14.47 | 7.87–15.35 | 12.50 | 9.56–15.45 | 8.64–16.37 | 24.1116.51–31.72 |
| Offsides | 1.69 | 0.48–2.90 | 0.14–3.24 | 1.90 | 0.74–3.06 | 0.41–3.40 | 3.590.54–6.64 |
| Yellow cards | 1.52 | 0.46–2.57 | 0.19–2.85 | 1.83 | 0.71–2.95 | 0.42–3.24 | 3.350.61–6.09 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.140.00–0.78 |
| GK saves | 2.86 | 1.45–4.28 | 1.06–4.67 | 3.34 | 1.79–4.90 | 1.36–5.33 | 6.212.42–10.00 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
35%
24%
41%
Shots on target
48%
39%
Total shots
55%
38%
Shots in box
41%
50%
Blocked shots
35%
15%
50%
Corners
43%
44%
Fouls
39%
53%
Offsides
35%
22%
43%
Yellow cards
32%
23%
45%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
34%
16%
49%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+