Ligue 1· Regular Season - 30· · Stade Bollaert-Delelis· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.68 | 1.71–3.64 | 1.45–3.90 | 1.10 | 0.24–1.96 | 0.00–2.20 | 3.771.45–6.10 |
| Shots on target | 6.45 | 4.59–8.30 | 4.09–8.80 | 4.31 | 2.60–6.01 | 2.13–6.48 | 10.756.22–15.28 |
| Total shots | 18.03 | 14.32–21.73 | 13.29–22.76 | 11.52 | 8.14–14.90 | 7.21–15.83 | 29.5520.51–38.59 |
| Shots in box | 12.92 | 10.40–15.43 | 9.54–16.30 | 6.90 | 4.59–9.20 | 3.80–9.99 | 19.8113.33–26.29 |
| Blocked shots | 4.94 | 3.36–6.52 | 2.82–7.06 | 2.42 | 1.00–3.83 | 0.52–4.32 | 7.363.34–11.38 |
| Corners | 6.92 | 4.71–9.12 | 4.12–9.72 | 4.01 | 2.03–5.99 | 1.49–6.53 | 10.935.61–16.24 |
| Possession % | 56.86 | 50.54–63.18 | 48.94–64.77 | 42.38 | 36.06–48.70 | 34.46–50.30 | — |
| Passes | 528 | 463–594 | 445–611 | 402 | 337–466 | 320–484 | 930765–1095 |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.23 | 71.01–79.44 | 69.71–80.74 | 68.62 | 64.12–73.13 | 62.79–74.46 | — |
| Fouls | 11.15 | 8.29–14.00 | 7.40–14.89 | 11.88 | 8.93–14.82 | 8.02–15.74 | 23.0315.42–30.63 |
| Offsides | 2.06 | 0.85–3.26 | 0.50–3.61 | 1.81 | 0.65–2.97 | 0.32–3.31 | 3.870.82–6.92 |
| Yellow cards | 1.46 | 0.40–2.51 | 0.13–2.78 | 1.78 | 0.66–2.90 | 0.37–3.19 | 3.240.50–5.98 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.130.00–0.78 |
| GK saves | 2.55 | 1.14–3.97 | 0.75–4.35 | 3.60 | 2.05–5.16 | 1.62–5.59 | 6.152.37–9.94 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
71%
16%
13%
Shots on target
69%
21%
Total shots
87%
Shots in box
89%
Blocked shots
77%
Corners
77%
15%
Fouls
40%
52%
Offsides
44%
21%
35%
Yellow cards
32%
23%
45%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
26%
15%
59%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+