Ligue 1· Regular Season - 30· · Stade Louis II· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.69 | 0.73–2.66 | 0.47–2.92 | 1.13 | 0.27–1.99 | 0.03–2.24 | 2.830.50–5.16 |
| Shots on target | 5.24 | 3.39–7.10 | 2.89–7.60 | 3.81 | 2.11–5.52 | 1.64–5.99 | 9.064.53–13.59 |
| Total shots | 15.15 | 11.45–18.85 | 10.42–19.88 | 10.61 | 7.23–13.99 | 6.30–14.92 | 25.7616.72–34.80 |
| Shots in box | 9.83 | 7.32–12.35 | 6.45–13.21 | 7.35 | 5.05–9.65 | 4.25–10.45 | 17.1810.70–23.66 |
| Blocked shots | 3.70 | 2.12–5.28 | 1.58–5.82 | 2.86 | 1.44–4.27 | 0.96–4.76 | 6.562.54–10.58 |
| Corners | 5.46 | 3.25–7.66 | 2.66–8.26 | 3.99 | 2.01–5.97 | 1.48–6.51 | 9.454.13–14.76 |
| Possession % | 55.70 | 49.38–62.01 | 47.78–63.61 | 44.83 | 38.51–51.15 | 36.92–52.75 | — |
| Passes | 543 | 478–609 | 460–626 | 443 | 379–508 | 361–525 | 987822–1152 |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.81 | 73.59–82.02 | 72.29–83.32 | 69.72 | 65.21–74.22 | 63.88–75.55 | — |
| Fouls | 12.03 | 9.17–14.89 | 8.29–15.77 | 10.72 | 7.77–13.66 | 6.86–14.58 | 22.7515.14–30.35 |
| Offsides | 1.95 | 0.74–3.16 | 0.39–3.50 | 1.40 | 0.23–2.56 | 0.00–2.89 | 3.340.29–6.39 |
| Yellow cards | 1.31 | 0.26–2.37 | 0.00–2.64 | 1.33 | 0.21–2.45 | 0.00–2.74 | 2.640.00–5.38 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.33 | 0.05 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.080.00–0.72 |
| GK saves | 2.54 | 1.13–3.96 | 0.74–4.35 | 3.41 | 1.86–4.97 | 1.43–5.40 | 5.962.17–9.75 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
50%
24%
26%
Shots on target
62%
26%
Total shots
79%
16%
Shots in box
68%
23%
Blocked shots
55%
15%
30%
Corners
62%
26%
Fouls
57%
35%
Offsides
50%
22%
28%
Yellow cards
37%
26%
37%
Red cards
93%
GK saves
28%
16%
56%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+