Ligue 1· Regular Season - 32· · Stade Francis-Le-Blé· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.66 | 0.70–2.63 | 0.44–2.89 | 1.18 | 0.32–2.03 | 0.07–2.28 | 2.840.51–5.17 |
| Shots on target | 5.08 | 3.22–6.93 | 2.72–7.43 | 3.95 | 2.24–5.65 | 1.77–6.12 | 9.024.49–13.55 |
| Total shots | 15.69 | 11.98–19.39 | 10.95–20.42 | 12.62 | 9.24–15.99 | 8.31–16.92 | 28.3019.26–37.35 |
| Shots in box | 10.49 | 7.97–13.00 | 7.11–13.87 | 7.36 | 5.06–9.66 | 4.26–10.46 | 17.8411.37–24.32 |
| Blocked shots | 3.98 | 2.40–5.57 | 1.86–6.10 | 2.93 | 1.52–4.35 | 1.03–4.83 | 6.912.89–10.93 |
| Corners | 5.25 | 3.04–7.45 | 2.45–8.05 | 4.44 | 2.46–6.42 | 1.92–6.95 | 9.694.37–15.00 |
| Possession % | 51.58 | 45.26–57.89 | 43.66–59.49 | 47.29 | 40.97–53.60 | 39.37–55.20 | — |
| Passes | 446 | 380–511 | 363–529 | 392 | 327–456 | 310–474 | 837672–1003 |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.90 | 65.68–74.11 | 64.38–75.41 | 68.06 | 63.55–72.57 | 62.22–73.90 | — |
| Fouls | 12.03 | 9.18–14.89 | 8.29–15.78 | 12.56 | 9.62–15.51 | 8.70–16.43 | 24.6016.99–32.20 |
| Offsides | 1.81 | 0.60–3.02 | 0.25–3.36 | 1.40 | 0.24–2.56 | 0.00–2.90 | 3.210.16–6.26 |
| Yellow cards | 1.43 | 0.37–2.48 | 0.10–2.75 | 1.77 | 0.65–2.89 | 0.36–3.18 | 3.200.46–5.94 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.110.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 2.53 | 1.11–3.94 | 0.72–4.33 | 3.18 | 1.63–4.74 | 1.20–5.17 | 5.711.92–9.50 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
49%
24%
27%
Shots on target
58%
29%
Total shots
69%
25%
Shots in box
73%
19%
Blocked shots
58%
14%
28%
Corners
54%
34%
Fouls
42%
50%
Offsides
47%
23%
30%
Yellow cards
31%
23%
46%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
31%
17%
52%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+