Ligue 1· Regular Season - 34· · Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.35 | 0.38–2.31 | 0.12–2.57 | 1.53 | 0.67–2.39 | 0.43–2.64 | 2.880.55–5.21 |
| Shots on target | 4.56 | 2.70–6.41 | 2.20–6.91 | 4.16 | 2.45–5.87 | 1.99–6.34 | 8.724.19–13.25 |
| Total shots | 14.28 | 10.58–17.99 | 9.55–19.02 | 12.75 | 9.37–16.13 | 8.44–17.06 | 27.0417.99–36.08 |
| Shots in box | 9.82 | 7.30–12.34 | 6.44–13.20 | 8.36 | 6.05–10.66 | 5.26–11.45 | 18.1811.70–24.65 |
| Blocked shots | 3.70 | 2.11–5.28 | 1.58–5.82 | 3.01 | 1.59–4.42 | 1.11–4.91 | 6.702.68–10.72 |
| Corners | 5.04 | 2.84–7.25 | 2.24–7.84 | 4.85 | 2.87–6.82 | 2.33–7.36 | 9.894.57–15.20 |
| Possession % | 50.68 | 44.36–57.00 | 42.76–58.59 | 50.19 | 43.87–56.51 | 42.28–58.11 | — |
| Passes | 413 | 347–478 | 330–496 | 395 | 330–459 | 312–477 | 807642–972 |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.77 | 64.55–72.98 | 63.25–74.28 | 67.75 | 63.24–72.26 | 61.91–73.59 | — |
| Fouls | 12.16 | 9.30–15.01 | 8.41–15.90 | 11.88 | 8.94–14.83 | 8.02–15.74 | 24.0416.43–31.64 |
| Offsides | 1.68 | 0.47–2.89 | 0.13–3.23 | 1.80 | 0.63–2.96 | 0.30–3.29 | 3.480.43–6.53 |
| Yellow cards | 1.59 | 0.53–2.64 | 0.26–2.92 | 1.69 | 0.57–2.81 | 0.28–3.10 | 3.280.54–6.02 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.130.00–0.77 |
| GK saves | 2.58 | 1.17–3.99 | 0.78–4.38 | 3.07 | 1.52–4.62 | 1.09–5.06 | 5.651.86–9.44 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
33%
25%
42%
Shots on target
48%
14%
38%
Total shots
58%
35%
Shots in box
59%
32%
Blocked shots
53%
15%
32%
Corners
46%
41%
Fouls
48%
44%
Offsides
36%
22%
41%
Yellow cards
36%
23%
41%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
34%
17%
50%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+