Ligue 1· Regular Season - 34· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.38 | 1.42–3.34 | 1.16–3.60 | 1.04 | 0.18–1.90 | 0.00–2.14 | 3.421.09–5.75 |
| Shots on target | 6.42 | 4.56–8.28 | 4.06–8.77 | 3.84 | 2.13–5.54 | 1.66–6.01 | 10.265.72–14.79 |
| Total shots | 17.57 | 13.87–21.27 | 12.84–22.30 | 9.96 | 6.58–13.34 | 5.65–14.27 | 27.5318.48–36.57 |
| Shots in box | 11.84 | 9.32–14.35 | 8.46–15.22 | 6.71 | 4.41–9.02 | 3.62–9.81 | 18.5512.07–25.03 |
| Blocked shots | 4.78 | 3.19–6.36 | 2.66–6.90 | 2.38 | 0.96–3.79 | 0.48–4.28 | 7.153.14–11.17 |
| Corners | 6.21 | 4.00–8.41 | 3.41–9.01 | 3.22 | 1.24–5.20 | 0.71–5.74 | 9.434.11–14.75 |
| Possession % | 62.08 | 55.76–68.40 | 54.16–69.99 | 36.70 | 30.38–43.02 | 28.79–44.62 | — |
| Passes | 689 | 624–754 | 606–772 | 393 | 328–457 | 311–475 | 1082917–1247 |
| Pass accuracy % | 86.24 | 82.03–90.46 | 80.72–91.76 | 72.29 | 67.78–76.80 | 66.45–78.13 | — |
| Fouls | 11.18 | 8.32–14.04 | 7.44–14.92 | 9.40 | 6.45–12.34 | 5.54–13.26 | 20.5812.97–28.19 |
| Offsides | 1.97 | 0.76–3.18 | 0.41–3.52 | 1.43 | 0.26–2.59 | 0.00–2.92 | 3.390.35–6.44 |
| Yellow cards | 1.27 | 0.22–2.33 | 0.00–2.60 | 1.43 | 0.31–2.55 | 0.02–2.84 | 2.700.00–5.44 |
| Red cards | 0.02 | 0.00–0.17 | 0.00–0.33 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.090.00–0.73 |
| GK saves | 2.33 | 0.92–3.75 | 0.53–4.14 | 3.84 | 2.29–5.39 | 1.85–5.83 | 6.172.38–9.96 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
67%
18%
15%
Shots on target
74%
16%
Total shots
91%
Shots in box
86%
Blocked shots
76%
13%
Corners
79%
Fouls
61%
31%
Offsides
50%
22%
28%
Yellow cards
34%
26%
41%
Red cards
92%
GK saves
21%
14%
66%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+