Premiership· Regular Season - 7· · Celtic Park· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.91 | 0.95–2.88 | 0.69–3.14 | 1.30 | 0.44–2.16 | 0.19–2.41 | 3.210.89–5.54 |
| Shots on target | 5.64 | 3.78–7.50 | 3.29–8.00 | 4.26 | 2.55–5.97 | 2.09–6.44 | 9.905.37–14.43 |
| Total shots | 14.14 | 10.44–17.84 | 9.41–18.87 | 12.78 | 9.40–16.16 | 8.47–17.09 | 26.9217.88–35.97 |
| Shots in box | 10.09 | 7.57–12.61 | 6.71–13.47 | 8.97 | 6.67–11.27 | 5.87–12.07 | 19.0612.58–25.54 |
| Blocked shots | 3.82 | 2.24–5.41 | 1.70–5.94 | 3.83 | 2.41–5.24 | 1.93–5.73 | 7.653.63–11.67 |
| Corners | 5.98 | 3.78–8.19 | 3.18–8.78 | 4.73 | 2.75–6.71 | 2.22–7.25 | 10.725.40–16.03 |
| Possession % | 58.59 | 52.28–64.91 | 50.68–66.51 | 41.83 | 35.51–48.15 | 33.92–49.75 | — |
| Passes | 574 | 509–639 | 491–657 | 421 | 357–486 | 339–503 | 995830–1160 |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.22 | 74.00–82.44 | 72.70–83.74 | 70.70 | 66.19–75.20 | 64.86–76.53 | — |
| Fouls | 11.19 | 8.34–14.05 | 7.45–14.94 | 11.20 | 8.26–14.15 | 7.34–15.07 | 22.4014.79–30.00 |
| Offsides | 2.04 | 0.83–3.25 | 0.48–3.59 | 1.80 | 0.64–2.96 | 0.30–3.29 | 3.840.79–6.88 |
| Yellow cards | 1.87 | 0.82–2.93 | 0.54–3.20 | 1.97 | 0.85–3.09 | 0.56–3.38 | 3.841.10–6.58 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.110.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 3.46 | 2.04–4.87 | 1.65–5.26 | 2.81 | 1.26–4.37 | 0.83–4.80 | 6.272.48–10.06 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
52%
22%
26%
Shots on target
61%
27%
Total shots
57%
36%
Shots in box
56%
36%
Blocked shots
43%
15%
43%
Corners
59%
29%
Fouls
46%
46%
Offsides
44%
21%
35%
Yellow cards
37%
21%
41%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
52%
16%
32%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+