Premiership· Regular Season - 12· · Ibrox Stadium· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.28 | 1.32–3.25 | 1.06–3.51 | 0.69 | 0.00–1.55 | 0.00–1.80 | 2.970.64–5.30 |
| Shots on target | 7.23 | 5.38–9.09 | 4.88–9.59 | 2.58 | 0.88–4.29 | 0.41–4.76 | 9.825.28–14.35 |
| Total shots | 19.97 | 16.26–23.67 | 15.23–24.70 | 7.50 | 4.12–10.88 | 3.19–11.81 | 27.4718.42–36.51 |
| Shots in box | 13.18 | 10.66–15.70 | 9.80–16.56 | 5.19 | 2.89–7.49 | 2.10–8.29 | 18.3711.89–24.85 |
| Blocked shots | 5.30 | 3.72–6.88 | 3.18–7.42 | 2.21 | 0.80–3.63 | 0.31–4.11 | 7.513.49–11.53 |
| Corners | 7.61 | 5.41–9.82 | 4.81–10.41 | 3.46 | 1.48–5.44 | 0.94–5.97 | 11.075.75–16.39 |
| Possession % | 59.64 | 53.32–65.96 | 51.72–67.55 | 39.74 | 33.42–46.05 | 31.82–47.65 | — |
| Passes | 534 | 469–600 | 451–617 | 355 | 290–420 | 273–437 | 889724–1055 |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.15 | 70.93–79.37 | 69.63–80.67 | 64.96 | 60.45–69.47 | 59.12–70.80 | — |
| Fouls | 11.99 | 9.13–14.85 | 8.25–15.73 | 12.38 | 9.43–15.32 | 8.51–16.24 | 24.3716.76–31.97 |
| Offsides | 1.52 | 0.31–2.73 | 0.00–3.08 | 2.10 | 0.94–3.27 | 0.61–3.60 | 3.630.58–6.68 |
| Yellow cards | 1.42 | 0.37–2.48 | 0.10–2.75 | 2.70 | 1.58–3.82 | 1.29–4.11 | 4.121.38–6.86 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.140.00–0.78 |
| GK saves | 1.75 | 0.33–3.16 | 0.00–3.55 | 4.27 | 2.72–5.83 | 2.29–6.26 | 6.022.23–9.81 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
73%
17%
Shots on target
91%
Total shots
99%
Shots in box
96%
Blocked shots
83%
Corners
87%
Fouls
43%
49%
Offsides
28%
21%
51%
Yellow cards
18%
17%
65%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
80%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+