Premiership· Regular Season - 14· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.74 | 0.77–2.70 | 0.51–2.96 | 1.09 | 0.23–1.95 | 0.00–2.19 | 2.820.49–5.15 |
| Shots on target | 5.51 | 3.65–7.36 | 3.15–7.86 | 3.94 | 2.23–5.65 | 1.77–6.12 | 9.454.92–13.98 |
| Total shots | 16.83 | 13.13–20.54 | 12.10–21.57 | 11.61 | 8.24–14.99 | 7.30–15.92 | 28.4519.40–37.49 |
| Shots in box | 10.33 | 7.81–12.85 | 6.95–13.71 | 7.43 | 5.13–9.74 | 4.34–10.53 | 17.7611.28–24.24 |
| Blocked shots | 4.04 | 2.46–5.63 | 1.92–6.16 | 3.56 | 2.15–4.98 | 1.66–5.46 | 7.603.58–11.62 |
| Corners | 6.25 | 4.05–8.46 | 3.45–9.05 | 4.74 | 2.76–6.71 | 2.22–7.25 | 10.995.67–16.30 |
| Possession % | 52.80 | 46.48–59.12 | 44.88–60.71 | 47.37 | 41.05–53.69 | 39.45–55.28 | — |
| Passes | 395 | 329–460 | 312–478 | 371 | 307–436 | 289–453 | 766601–931 |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.08 | 65.86–74.30 | 64.56–75.60 | 74.63 | 70.13–79.14 | 68.80–80.47 | — |
| Fouls | 11.41 | 8.55–14.27 | 7.67–15.15 | 11.99 | 9.05–14.94 | 8.13–15.86 | 23.4115.80–31.01 |
| Offsides | 1.68 | 0.47–2.89 | 0.12–3.23 | 1.58 | 0.42–2.74 | 0.09–3.08 | 3.260.21–6.31 |
| Yellow cards | 1.83 | 0.77–2.88 | 0.50–3.15 | 1.97 | 0.85–3.10 | 0.56–3.39 | 3.801.06–6.54 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.150.00–0.79 |
| GK saves | 2.55 | 1.13–3.96 | 0.74–4.35 | 2.94 | 1.39–4.49 | 0.95–4.93 | 5.491.70–9.28 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
53%
24%
24%
Shots on target
63%
25%
Total shots
81%
14%
Shots in box
72%
21%
Blocked shots
50%
15%
36%
Corners
62%
27%
Fouls
41%
51%
Offsides
40%
23%
36%
Yellow cards
36%
21%
42%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
35%
17%
48%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+