Premiership· Regular Season - 14· · Fir Park· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.23 | 0.26–2.19 | 0.00–2.45 | 1.59 | 0.73–2.45 | 0.48–2.69 | 2.810.48–5.14 |
| Shots on target | 4.21 | 2.35–6.07 | 1.85–6.56 | 5.87 | 4.17–7.58 | 3.70–8.05 | 10.085.55–14.61 |
| Total shots | 11.69 | 7.99–15.39 | 6.96–16.42 | 16.29 | 12.91–19.67 | 11.98–20.60 | 27.9818.94–37.02 |
| Shots in box | 7.82 | 5.30–10.33 | 4.44–11.20 | 10.35 | 8.05–12.66 | 7.26–13.45 | 18.1711.69–24.65 |
| Blocked shots | 2.89 | 1.31–4.48 | 0.77–5.01 | 4.24 | 2.82–5.65 | 2.34–6.14 | 7.133.11–11.15 |
| Corners | 4.61 | 2.41–6.82 | 1.81–7.41 | 5.71 | 3.73–7.68 | 3.19–8.22 | 10.325.00–15.64 |
| Possession % | 52.30 | 45.99–58.62 | 44.39–60.22 | 49.01 | 42.69–55.33 | 41.10–56.93 | — |
| Passes | 480 | 415–546 | 398–563 | 462 | 398–527 | 380–544 | 943778–1108 |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.09 | 76.88–85.31 | 75.57–86.61 | 76.49 | 71.98–80.99 | 70.65–82.32 | — |
| Fouls | 11.87 | 9.02–14.73 | 8.13–15.62 | 12.76 | 9.81–15.70 | 8.89–16.62 | 24.6317.02–32.24 |
| Offsides | 1.90 | 0.70–3.11 | 0.35–3.46 | 1.57 | 0.41–2.74 | 0.08–3.07 | 3.480.43–6.53 |
| Yellow cards | 1.87 | 0.82–2.93 | 0.55–3.20 | 1.87 | 0.75–3.00 | 0.46–3.29 | 3.751.01–6.49 |
| Red cards | 0.08 | 0.00–0.23 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.150.00–0.80 |
| GK saves | 3.92 | 2.50–5.33 | 2.11–5.72 | 2.51 | 0.95–4.06 | 0.52–4.49 | 6.422.63–10.21 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
29%
25%
46%
Shots on target
25%
64%
Total shots
17%
78%
Shots in box
24%
68%
Blocked shots
24%
14%
62%
Corners
31%
57%
Fouls
39%
53%
Offsides
46%
22%
32%
Yellow cards
39%
21%
39%
Red cards
86%
GK saves
64%
14%
22%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+