Premiership· Regular Season - 17· · Pittodrie Stadium· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.29 | 0.33–2.26 | 0.07–2.52 | 1.76 | 0.91–2.62 | 0.66–2.87 | 3.060.73–5.39 |
| Shots on target | 3.86 | 2.00–5.71 | 1.50–6.21 | 5.39 | 3.69–7.10 | 3.22–7.57 | 9.254.72–13.78 |
| Total shots | 13.22 | 9.52–16.93 | 8.49–17.96 | 16.17 | 12.80–19.55 | 11.86–20.48 | 29.4020.35–38.44 |
| Shots in box | 7.88 | 5.37–10.40 | 4.50–11.26 | 9.64 | 7.33–11.94 | 6.54–12.73 | 17.5211.04–24.00 |
| Blocked shots | 3.66 | 2.08–5.25 | 1.55–5.78 | 4.46 | 3.05–5.88 | 2.56–6.36 | 8.134.11–12.15 |
| Corners | 5.18 | 2.97–7.38 | 2.38–7.98 | 5.75 | 3.78–7.73 | 3.24–8.27 | 10.935.61–16.25 |
| Possession % | 50.25 | 43.93–56.57 | 42.33–58.16 | 50.81 | 44.49–57.13 | 42.90–58.73 | — |
| Passes | 387 | 321–452 | 304–470 | 413 | 348–478 | 331–495 | 800635–965 |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.93 | 66.71–75.14 | 65.41–76.44 | 75.78 | 71.27–80.28 | 69.94–81.61 | — |
| Fouls | 12.08 | 9.22–14.94 | 8.34–15.82 | 12.47 | 9.53–15.42 | 8.61–16.34 | 24.5516.95–32.16 |
| Offsides | 1.68 | 0.47–2.89 | 0.13–3.24 | 1.45 | 0.29–2.62 | 0.00–2.95 | 3.140.09–6.19 |
| Yellow cards | 1.94 | 0.89–3.00 | 0.62–3.27 | 2.00 | 0.88–3.12 | 0.59–3.41 | 3.951.21–6.69 |
| Red cards | 0.07 | 0.00–0.22 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.140.00–0.78 |
| GK saves | 3.37 | 1.95–4.78 | 1.56–5.17 | 2.41 | 0.85–3.96 | 0.42–4.39 | 5.781.99–9.57 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
28%
23%
49%
Shots on target
25%
63%
Total shots
26%
67%
Shots in box
29%
62%
Blocked shots
32%
14%
54%
Corners
37%
51%
Fouls
43%
49%
Offsides
43%
24%
33%
Yellow cards
38%
21%
41%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
57%
16%
27%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+