Premiership· Regular Season - 21· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.52 | 0.56–2.49 | 0.30–2.75 | 1.06 | 0.20–1.92 | 0.00–2.17 | 2.580.25–4.91 |
| Shots on target | 5.86 | 4.00–7.71 | 3.50–8.21 | 3.46 | 1.75–5.16 | 1.28–5.63 | 9.314.78–13.84 |
| Total shots | 16.23 | 12.53–19.94 | 11.50–20.97 | 11.05 | 7.67–14.43 | 6.74–15.36 | 27.2818.24–36.33 |
| Shots in box | 10.24 | 7.72–12.75 | 6.86–13.62 | 6.69 | 4.39–9.00 | 3.60–9.79 | 16.9310.45–23.41 |
| Blocked shots | 4.16 | 2.57–5.74 | 2.04–6.28 | 3.18 | 1.77–4.60 | 1.28–5.08 | 7.343.32–11.36 |
| Corners | 6.10 | 3.89–8.30 | 3.30–8.90 | 4.15 | 2.17–6.13 | 1.64–6.67 | 10.254.93–15.57 |
| Possession % | 55.36 | 49.04–61.68 | 47.44–63.27 | 46.52 | 40.20–52.84 | 38.60–54.43 | — |
| Passes | 467 | 402–532 | 384–550 | 385 | 320–450 | 303–467 | 852687–1017 |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.29 | 66.07–74.50 | 64.77–75.81 | 69.67 | 65.17–74.18 | 63.84–75.51 | — |
| Fouls | 11.27 | 8.42–14.13 | 7.53–15.02 | 11.90 | 8.95–14.84 | 8.04–15.76 | 23.1715.57–30.78 |
| Offsides | 1.65 | 0.44–2.86 | 0.10–3.21 | 1.33 | 0.17–2.49 | 0.00–2.83 | 2.980.00–6.03 |
| Yellow cards | 1.88 | 0.83–2.94 | 0.55–3.21 | 1.94 | 0.82–3.06 | 0.53–3.35 | 3.821.08–6.56 |
| Red cards | 0.08 | 0.00–0.23 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.160.00–0.81 |
| GK saves | 2.56 | 1.15–3.97 | 0.76–4.36 | 3.03 | 1.48–4.59 | 1.05–5.02 | 5.591.80–9.38 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
48%
26%
26%
Shots on target
73%
17%
Total shots
82%
14%
Shots in box
77%
16%
Blocked shots
57%
14%
29%
Corners
67%
22%
Fouls
41%
51%
Offsides
45%
24%
31%
Yellow cards
38%
21%
40%
Red cards
86%
GK saves
34%
17%
49%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+