Premiership· Regular Season - 22· · Fir Park· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.70 | 0.73–2.66 | 0.47–2.92 | 1.08 | 0.22–1.94 | 0.00–2.18 | 2.770.44–5.10 |
| Shots on target | 5.21 | 3.36–7.07 | 2.86–7.57 | 4.46 | 2.76–6.17 | 2.29–6.64 | 9.685.15–14.21 |
| Total shots | 14.24 | 10.54–17.94 | 9.50–18.97 | 13.04 | 9.66–16.42 | 8.73–17.35 | 27.2818.24–36.32 |
| Shots in box | 10.32 | 7.80–12.83 | 6.93–13.70 | 7.72 | 5.42–10.02 | 4.62–10.82 | 18.0411.56–24.52 |
| Blocked shots | 3.95 | 2.37–5.54 | 1.83–6.07 | 2.75 | 1.33–4.16 | 0.84–4.65 | 6.702.68–10.72 |
| Corners | 5.62 | 3.42–7.83 | 2.82–8.42 | 4.36 | 2.38–6.34 | 1.85–6.88 | 9.994.67–15.30 |
| Possession % | 55.86 | 49.54–62.18 | 47.94–63.77 | 43.49 | 37.17–49.81 | 35.57–51.40 | — |
| Passes | 559 | 494–624 | 476–642 | 435 | 371–500 | 353–517 | 994829–1159 |
| Pass accuracy % | 85.69 | 81.48–89.91 | 80.18–91.21 | 75.53 | 71.03–80.04 | 69.69–81.37 | — |
| Fouls | 11.03 | 8.17–13.89 | 7.29–14.77 | 11.90 | 8.96–14.85 | 8.04–15.76 | 22.9315.33–30.54 |
| Offsides | 1.81 | 0.60–3.02 | 0.25–3.36 | 1.42 | 0.26–2.58 | 0.00–2.92 | 3.230.18–6.28 |
| Yellow cards | 1.26 | 0.21–2.32 | 0.00–2.59 | 1.66 | 0.54–2.78 | 0.25–3.08 | 2.930.19–5.67 |
| Red cards | 0.07 | 0.00–0.22 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.150.00–0.79 |
| GK saves | 2.97 | 1.56–4.39 | 1.17–4.78 | 2.96 | 1.41–4.52 | 0.98–4.95 | 5.942.15–9.73 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
52%
24%
24%
Shots on target
53%
34%
Total shots
55%
37%
Shots in box
69%
23%
Blocked shots
61%
14%
25%
Corners
59%
29%
Fouls
39%
53%
Offsides
47%
23%
30%
Yellow cards
29%
24%
47%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
42%
17%
41%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+