Premiership· Regular Season - 23· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.59 | 0.62–2.55 | 0.36–2.81 | 1.27 | 0.41–2.13 | 0.17–2.38 | 2.860.53–5.19 |
| Shots on target | 5.96 | 4.10–7.81 | 3.60–8.31 | 3.89 | 2.18–5.60 | 1.71–6.06 | 9.855.31–14.38 |
| Total shots | 17.25 | 13.55–20.95 | 12.51–21.98 | 11.15 | 7.77–14.53 | 6.84–15.46 | 28.4019.36–37.44 |
| Shots in box | 11.95 | 9.43–14.46 | 8.56–15.33 | 6.96 | 4.66–9.26 | 3.86–10.06 | 18.9112.43–25.39 |
| Blocked shots | 4.64 | 3.06–6.23 | 2.52–6.76 | 3.08 | 1.66–4.49 | 1.18–4.98 | 7.723.70–11.74 |
| Corners | 5.82 | 3.61–8.02 | 3.02–8.62 | 4.25 | 2.28–6.23 | 1.74–6.77 | 10.074.76–15.39 |
| Possession % | 45.56 | 39.24–51.88 | 37.65–53.48 | 53.95 | 47.63–60.27 | 46.03–61.87 | — |
| Passes | 392 | 327–458 | 309–475 | 476 | 412–541 | 394–558 | 868703–1034 |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.84 | 70.62–79.05 | 69.32–80.36 | 82.80 | 78.29–87.31 | 76.96–88.64 | — |
| Fouls | 12.77 | 9.91–15.63 | 9.03–16.51 | 11.55 | 8.61–14.50 | 7.69–15.42 | 24.3216.72–31.93 |
| Offsides | 1.65 | 0.44–2.86 | 0.10–3.21 | 1.48 | 0.32–2.64 | 0.00–2.98 | 3.130.08–6.18 |
| Yellow cards | 1.61 | 0.55–2.67 | 0.28–2.94 | 1.89 | 0.77–3.01 | 0.48–3.30 | 3.500.76–6.24 |
| Red cards | 0.07 | 0.00–0.23 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.170.00–0.81 |
| GK saves | 2.57 | 1.15–3.98 | 0.76–4.37 | 3.18 | 1.62–4.73 | 1.19–5.16 | 5.741.95–9.53 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
45%
25%
31%
Shots on target
69%
20%
Total shots
85%
Shots in box
85%
Blocked shots
65%
23%
Corners
63%
26%
Fouls
56%
36%
Offsides
42%
24%
35%
Yellow cards
33%
22%
45%
Red cards
85%
GK saves
32%
17%
52%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+