Premiership· Regular Season - 24· · Fir Park· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.60 | 0.64–2.57 | 0.38–2.83 | 1.39 | 0.53–2.25 | 0.28–2.49 | 2.990.66–5.32 |
| Shots on target | 5.21 | 3.35–7.06 | 2.85–7.56 | 4.97 | 3.27–6.68 | 2.80–7.15 | 10.185.65–14.71 |
| Total shots | 16.05 | 12.34–19.75 | 11.31–20.78 | 14.55 | 11.17–17.92 | 10.24–18.86 | 30.5921.55–39.64 |
| Shots in box | 10.19 | 7.67–12.71 | 6.81–13.57 | 9.33 | 7.03–11.64 | 6.24–12.43 | 19.5213.05–26.00 |
| Blocked shots | 3.94 | 2.36–5.53 | 1.83–6.06 | 3.79 | 2.38–5.21 | 1.89–5.69 | 7.733.72–11.75 |
| Corners | 5.82 | 3.61–8.02 | 3.02–8.62 | 5.34 | 3.36–7.32 | 2.82–7.85 | 11.165.84–16.47 |
| Possession % | 55.79 | 49.47–62.10 | 47.87–63.70 | 42.94 | 36.62–49.26 | 35.02–50.86 | — |
| Passes | 503 | 438–569 | 420–586 | 396 | 331–460 | 314–478 | 899734–1064 |
| Pass accuracy % | 83.19 | 78.97–87.41 | 77.67–88.71 | 80.07 | 75.56–84.57 | 74.23–85.90 | — |
| Fouls | 11.46 | 8.61–14.32 | 7.72–15.21 | 12.14 | 9.20–15.09 | 8.28–16.01 | 23.6116.00–31.21 |
| Offsides | 1.69 | 0.48–2.90 | 0.14–3.25 | 1.49 | 0.33–2.65 | 0.00–2.98 | 3.180.13–6.23 |
| Yellow cards | 1.42 | 0.36–2.47 | 0.09–2.75 | 1.78 | 0.66–2.90 | 0.37–3.19 | 3.200.46–5.94 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.140.00–0.78 |
| GK saves | 3.02 | 1.61–4.44 | 1.22–4.82 | 3.27 | 1.72–4.83 | 1.29–5.26 | 6.292.50–10.08 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
43%
24%
33%
Shots on target
47%
41%
Total shots
57%
36%
Shots in box
53%
38%
Blocked shots
45%
15%
41%
Corners
50%
38%
Fouls
40%
51%
Offsides
43%
23%
34%
Yellow cards
31%
23%
46%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
38%
16%
46%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+